Thursday, July 31, 2014

10 Years: Who's the Best?

With the conclusion of the 2013 regular season, it’s been ten long years of Maize and Blue. Well, actually, it’s been much longer than that but ESPN only has ten years of stats going backwards. Still, a decade is a long time and I wanted to take the opportunity to look at the historical record, compile some numbers, and answer some pressing questions. First off, here’s what I’ve been working off of, a compiled list of W/L/T for 2004-2013. I also uploaded the old standings from 2004-2009. Note: Data could be wrong as I’m just going off of what ESPN has recorded!

Also, in the interest of keeping things clear, with division names changing all the time as each winner picks a new name, I went back to the old way of clarifying between divisions by using Red and White for Western Conference and Blue and Gold for Eastern Conference. (I can only hope the latter reference was to the 90s X-Men team divisions. Since we all know otherwise that it would be “maize” instead of “gold.") Hope that helps!

Which is the better conference?
Colloquially, it’s always been said that the Eastern Conference, currently made up of Lebowski Achievers and The Wood was the tougher conference. Well, turns out that’s right on just about every level. Over the course of 1,040 regular season games in ten seasons, the East holds an edge in regular season victories, winning 50.24% of their games, compard to 49.76% wins for the Western Conference teams. Most importantly, they hold the edge in championships won, 7-3.
  • Eastern Conference (Lebowski Achievers, The Wood): 521-516-3, 50.24%
  • Western Conference (Knights Who Say Ni, Hoke-A-Mania): 510-515-15, 49.76%

What is the best division?
Hands down, the best division has been Lebowski Achievers, who are the only division to compile a winning record, at a combined record of 0.513. The other three divisions are separated by mere tenths of a few hundred points. Even when looking at championships, Lewbowski Achievers have won three titles, which equals their conference mates The Wood. Of course, The Wood has had representatives at five Super Bowls, one more than Lebowski, but their division winning percentage is the lowest of the four. Interestingly, both Hoke-A-Mania and Knights Who Say Ni have good regular season winning percentages despite the extreme lack of parity between the haves and have nots from those two divisions. This clearly must be because our schedule is very division focused, with two games each against our in-division opponents.
  1. Lebowski Achievers (East/Gold): 265-252-3, 51.3%
  2. Hoke-A-Mania (West/White): 254-255-11, 49.9%
  3. Knights Who Say Ni (West/Red): 256-260-4, 49.6%
  4. The Wood: 256-264-0 (East/Blue), 49.2%

Who has been the best franchise?
It’s really hard to answer this question, and no definitive answer should exist because it’s fun to argue who is the best by different metrics. For example, looking purely at championships, the main reason we play the game, the best franchise over the past decade has been Detroit Players. Not only have they won two titles, but they did it back-to-back in 2007-2008. Another Bad Creation, 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears, and Squirtle Squad have all won two rings, but theirs were quite a few years apart. Mandalorian Warriors and Thundercats (now Hungry Ouroboros) have each won one championship each. Eight of the sixteen franchises haven’t been to the Super Bowl in the last decade, making Maize and Blue similar to the NBA, where a handful of teams seem to win the Finals.

One could argue that the only qualification for “best franchise” should be that you’ve won the Super Bowl at least once. That could eliminate someone like Morrie’s Pogiboys, who despite their sterling regular season record, only just appeared in their first Super Bowl. But it's hard to say that Alvin's team hasn't been great. If so, should “best” also equate to “wins the most” or perhaps “most consistent?” Shouldn’t division titles and playoff appearances count? Going by those metrics, Pogiboys should rank among the very best.

If the question is "who wins the most in the regular season," then there are really only three contenders here: Morrie's Pogiboys, Another Bad Creation, and 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears. Looking at the regular season overall winning percentage, these three teams jump out at you as they win over 63% of their games. To put that in perspective, the winningest regular season NFL team of all time, the Chicago Bears, only win at a 57.6% clip.

Looked at in another light, these three teams have absolutely dominated the regular season. Another Bad Creation has won five of the their division’s titles while 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears have won seven of theirs. Incredibly, Pogiboys have won EIGHT division titles. It may be no coincidence but two of the traditionally worst regular season franchises also reside in Alvin’s division: Ann Arbor Bamfers and Team Cameltoe. Looks like Pogiboys love to beat up on their weaker competition!

Let’s also take a look at five year splits, for the periods of 2004-08 and 2009-13. There’s not a whole lot of shifting around but it’s an interesting comparison to the total wins/loss record. We can see that P Funk All Stars played the first five years at a 55.4% winning clip before super collapsing to 26.6% the last five seasons.

And how about if we narrow that number down to the last three seasons. Then we get a much different picture of which teams have been trending up or down. Teams such as Ann Arbor Bamfers and Fockers are nudging up a few slots, with Jedi Knights making an incredible leap over the past three years from the second-to-last team in Maize and Blue to a top three ranking on the strength of 6-7, 10-2-1, and 8-5 seasons. Whatever Chris is eating for breakfast, everyone else should be too! As for teams falling down the charts, fans of Hungry Ouroboros, Detroit Players, WS Tartars, and especially Original Salt need to be worried that their teams are moving in the wrong direction and now circling the drain.

Who has been the best owner?
Well, that's an answer we just won't be able to figure out through numbers can we? Is it someone who has piloted his team from worst to first? Someone who has made the most savvy trades and free agent pickups? How about the manager who has managed to revamp his core while consistently winning? Or maybe it was the owner who decided to slip out the door during the championship party, leaving at the top of his game. Let the debate rage on!