Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Draft Review 2012

Yes, I'm aware the draft is still going on but I don't care. Here at MB-ESPN we like to jump the gun on everything. Plus there's a good reason we're only gonna cover the first five rounds. You'll see below. If I've somehow evaluated your players falsely, please send a formal complaint to the commissioner. Just remember, it's not personal. Okay, you're right, it's totally personal.

Round One
After trading up for the number one overall pick, Pogiboys went with the consensus number one rookie, RB Trent Richardson. With a gaping hole at running back, people say that Richardson is the next Adrian Peterson but it seems like so far the only thing they have in common is a knee injury. Still, this was the absolute right pick here. The other widely touted rookie, RB Doug Martin went next to Pooh Bears, who moved quite a few picks to get up to 1.2. Martin will be a nice luxury since he'll get the chance to grow into his role behind Ray Rice and Ryan Mathews.

Part of the huge bounty of picks received by the Amoebas' 2010 trade of Andre Johnson, GM Eric shocked pundits by taking Andrew Luck off the board. With franchise caliber Matthew Stafford already a keeper, what was the thinking? Sources at Amoebas' camp said that Luck will be purely a developmental pick. "We looked around and saw that all the great QBs of the moment were big white guys who stood around in the pocket. Guess what Luck is? A big white guy who stands in the pocket! We're proud to have Stafford on board but having two big white guys can't hurt. We could also play them both at the same time, which could really confuse opponents." If Luck develops as expected, Eric could have a great trade chip in the coming few months.

The last top rookie to go, QB Robert Griffin III, was destined for Detroit Players at 1.4. One of the few franchises that didn't keep a QB, they had Tim Tebow last year but will substitute a new run/pass threat. If RG3 is the next Cam Newton, this pick will go a long way toward Ariel's rebuild. Even though we'd love to tell you that this pick isn't going to help. It probably will. We would like to know who the choice would have been between Luck and Griffin, if Amoebas hadn't leapt in. Care to disclose Ariel?

The Pooh Bears and Bamfers went twice before most teams had even gone once. J went with Kendall Wright while Randy went with hometown sleeper Titus Young. We like both of them and think Young especially will get see a nice season. Wright is likely too young to make a true difference but someone has to catch the ball in Tennessee and Wright could be it.

The Itallion Stallionz scooped up Demaryius Thomas and Steven Ridley at 1.5 and 1.8 respectively. Porta's gonna need both to step up immediately to fill out his starting roster. We think both will pan out nicely and will be solid. The Bamfers selected Benjarvus Green-Ellis after Thomas and then Cameltoe swiped David Wilson. Which RB do we like better? Well, the Bamfers already have Fred Jackson, Frank Gore, Peyton Hillis, and CJ Spiller so we'd have preferred someone with a bit more upside than Green-Ellis for this pick. However, it's hard to argue with a guaranteed 10 TDs from Law Firm. I mean, if by guaranteed you mean "maybe." As for David Wilson, he could be a sneaky great pick for when Ahmad Bradshaw inevitably goes down. We like Felipe's upside gamble here. Wilson has already been making a name for himself this pre-season by "running with such flair that teammates have to tell him to tone it down."

Wilson probably replied, "Flair? That's not flair. I'll show you flair."

Rhythm Drive wins the "first pick I had to Google" contest when Reno selected TE Coby Fleener with pick 1.11. Fleener could be the next great tight end at an imposing 6-foot-6, 250 lbs. And he will definitely serve as a dominating center for Reno's AAU squads. Let's hope Fleener likes to play basketball in his off-seasons. We like what Reno did here, making a pick for fantasy and for real life. How he'll disguise Fleener as a sixth grader is beyond me though.

Earlier this week it was announced that The Office is coming back for one last season so this is the year Dunder Mifflin Paper Company has to make its big championship push right? With a strong running game, Mike needs his first round pick, WR Malcolm Floyd, to really come through. I can tell you that there are literally no wide receivers in San Diego left -- the Chargers even called me in yesterday for a tryout, but I ran a 8.2 in the 40 so that didn't help -- and Floyd will have every opportunity to become the next Vincent Jackson.

We thought RB Isaac Redman would have gone higher since he could take over starting duties in Pittsburgh. P Funk All Stars used the first of their back-to-backs on Redman and that could pan out nicely as this team desperately needs another runner to step up. You could question selecting a D/ST in the first round but 49ers defense should be a top three squad and Paolo knows that with his offense in some upheaveal, a strong defense could lead the way to a few wins. We'd like P Funk to draft Tim Tebow late, so we can recreate the fantasy version of the the 2011 Broncos season. A stiff defense, the magic of Tebow, all leading to a head scratching playoff spot. We gave P Funk awful keeper scores so we're interested to see what kind of upside picks are coming.

Wrapping up an interesting first round was Jedi Knights with RB Kevin Smith and Another Bad Creation grabbing Reggie Bush with the last selection. We think Smith will be a great sleeper and if he can stay healthy, he's immediately Chris' best running back. As for Oliver's pick, he'll get a low end starting RB in Bush and that could be perfect as Marshawn Lynch and Darren McFadden will get most of the carries anyway.

Best pick: Isaac Redman, P Funk All Stars (1.13)
Most obscure: Coby Fleener, Rhythm Drive (1.11)

Round Two
Starting off the next round, Squirtle Squad gets in the action by taking RB Ronnie Hillman. The Broncos rookie will take some time rounding into form as he's been dinged up but he could become useful later in the season as he elevates himself to Willis McGahee's backup and probable successor. Brian will need another starter though, as Adrian Peterson is the only other RB on the roster. Only one other running back was picked this round, Donald Brown way down at 2.11 by Reno.

At the top of the round after Hillman was Justin Blackmon, Nate Washington, Reggie Wayne, and TE Kyle Rudolph. Throw in Anquan Boldin (2.8), Derrius Heyward-Bey (2.12), and TEs Fred Davis and Jared Cook and it was clear that most owners were looking for serviceable pass catchers. How did Reggie Wayne slip to Porta at 2.3? Sure he's not that good anymore but he's a 1,000 yard receiver at the very worst. We think he's a steal here.

Pogiboys and Mandalorian Warriors both had three second round selections but they did very different things with them. Alvin pretty much had to go starting quarterback hunting, and he took Josh Freeman and Jake Locker. We like Freeman to have a bounce back year. Furthermore, the Pogiboys will need Nate Washington to be the wide receiver that takes charge in Tennessee. He could certainly do it, as Washington was surprisingly effective last year in a desperate situation.

Newsflash if you didn't know, the Mandalorian Warriors are going for a championship this season. After a bitter defeat in the Super Bowl last season, the Warriors have traded the future for the now. With an enviable keeper core and no first round draft picks until the back half of this decade, Matt went for a strong backup quarterback for Drew Brees in Ben Roethlisberger and TWO defenses. We don't know if the Bears or Eagles are better but taking them both solves that problem. Go Beagles!

Another Bad Creation went kicker very early, taking David Akers with the last pick in the second round. The earliest kicker selection in the past five years was 2007, when Matt Stover went off the board at 3.7. Does Oliver know something we don't? Perhaps. I mean, Akers did have a record breaking year last season, and he's finished in the top two in kicker points four years in a row. Of course, none of the last seventeen kickers to have scored 140+ points went over 140 again the following season so we'll see about this high priced kicker.

Best pick: Reggie Wayne, Italian Stallionz (2.4)
Most obscure: Kyle Rudolph, Detroit Players (2.5)

Round Three
A couple of teams haven't even gotten a pick yet. Wayne State Tartars entered the fray with Jonathan Stewart at 3.3 while Hungry Hungry Ouroboros selected Rashad Jennings at 3.15. Both are running backs stuck behind other running backs but they have some value, especially if an injury occurs. In fact, this round had a lot of backup RBs as Toby Gerhart, Jacquizz Rogers, and Evan Royster also went off the board. Any of those three could emerge as a quality starter by mid-season. We're curious if Royster or Roy Helu will emerge in Washington, or if both will split the carries and negate each other's value. Plus they have to fend off Tim Hightower.

I feel like P Funk All Stars got so many picks this draft. At 3.1 and 3.13, they took Brian Quick and Michael Floyd. Paolo only needs one of them to show signs of breaking out. Our bet is on Floyd. 100 Acre Pooh Bears also got two receivers this round, Lance Moore and Brandon LaFell. LaFell could be better after a semi-disappointing rookie year and Lance Moore is good for at least a few starts each season. With Dez Bryant ailing, Moore especially could be pressed into duty for J early on.

Dunder Mifflin should get a refund on pick 3.12, Austin Collie. After yet another concussion, he needs to retire like yesterday. Seriously bro, you got a lot of life left to live. You're a possession receiver, you're always gonna get hit. You need to stop the madness. Who's against giving Mike a re-do on this pick? If you are, you have no heart. Just like Collie will soon have no brains...

Five picks were selected using auto-draft this round. Stewart, Gerhart, Stephen Gostkowski, Alshon Jeffrey, and Giants defense. Okay more likely this was ranked but let it be noted that round three is when owners feel like it's safe to turn on auto. Unless that Another Bad Creation pick of David Akers was selected by the computer last round, which would explain a lot.

Best pick: Jonathan Stewart, Wayne State Tartars (3.3)
Most obscure: Alshon Jeffrey, Team Cameltoe (3.9)

Round Four
Here we go, the upside rookies are gone and it's veterans who lack upside or bargains who might break out now that they've had some seasoning. In the former category is Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Randy Moss, Santonio Holmes, Santana Moss. You know what you're getting here. A little bit of production and a lot of over the hill. Holmes is technically not old but most of us agree that better days are not ahead for him in that Jets' offense led by Sanchatebow. And if anyone is drinking that Randy Moss Kool Aid, I'm gonna go ahead and say that he's done considering Smith can't throw the deep ball to him.

Tight ends Brent Celek (Bamfers) and Owen Daniels (Warriors) were both once highly touted but probably will never become stars. That's okay though as they will fall in the middle of the pack for TEs -- plus Daniels will play behind Gronk for the Warriors. In this round we also have Packers defense and Seahawks defense becoming the fifth and sixth defenses selected (but only fifth team because of Warriors' double defenses earlier). That should take care of the elite ones.

Now for our reclamation projects and bargains with upside category: Randall Cobb, Danny Amendola, Davone Bess, Michael Bush, Daniel Thomas. All these guys have shown flashes or at least has an opportunity for quality work this season. Bush is the only one who has proven to be fantasy relevant but for now he'll be a valuable backup in Chicago. Daniel Thomas was literally the worst last season but he presents decent value after being drafted ultra-high last season.

Mandalorian Warriors had a whopping four picks this round: Randy Moss, Santonio Holmes, Isaiah Pead, and Owen Daniels. He's reassembled Holmes and Daniels from last year and secured Steven Jackson's backup in Pead. We call this incredible 2012 draft by Matt the "double bag strategy." Make sure you got a backup plan for any emergency and then be extra safe on top of that. I don't know about you, but I like this safety first method.

Best pick: Michael Bush, Human Amoebas (4.10)
Most obscure: Seahawks defense, Pooh Bears (4.16) I know the Seahawks have a defense, but I had no idea they were good! Oh wait, are they? Is Cortez Kennedy back or something?

Round Five
Okay, this is where I pretty much broke Google looking up these players: Dion Lewis, Rueben Randle, Josh Gordon, Robert Turbin, Mike Goodson. For real, my magazine didn't even list those guys except on the depth chart. And only Goodson had a mini-blurb. I'll save you some time and just tell you what I learned.

RB Dion Lewis could be the backup to LeSean McCoy for his second season, nice safety valve. Giants rookie Reuben Randle could soon be a famous sandwich at Katz's Deli if he plays well. Fellow rookie WR Josh Gordon got picked up in the supplemental draft and the Browns must really love him because they gave up a 2013 RD1. RB Robert Turbin could start for Marshawn Lynch early as Lynch serves a possible suspension. We think he'll be good for no reason at all because "Turbin" is a good fantasy name. Okay, that's not true. Like at all. It's a horrible football name! Fourth year RB Mike Goodson was stuck behind DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in Carolina and could be the primary backup for Darren McFadden -- aka the starter for at least six games -- if he can beat out Taiwan Jones.

Speaking of Mr. Jones. Nobody touch him. Seriously. Don't draft him unless you were also, like me, born in the Republic of China and then emigrated here. Actually, this should be a house rule. If a player is named after the country/region you're from, you get him automatically. For example, I would get Taiwan Jones and Reno would get Cebu Jones. And Porta would get Italy Jones. And the rest of you could flip for America Jones or Michigan Jones -- or wherever you're from. You with me?

The rest of this round also featured low/no upside running backs like Tim Hightower, LeGarrette Blount, and then fliers on Matt Flynn, Matt Cassell, and Ryan Tannehill. Our "highly optimistic but could work out" player of the round is Kendall Hunter by Pogiboys, who will have to fight hard to get some carries behind Frank Gore. Maybe he'll do it if someone shackles Gore, Brandon Jacobs, and rookie LaMichael James but it's unlikely. Still, we like owners who dream big.

Best pick: Taiwan Jones, Hungry Hungry Ouroboros (upcoming)
Most obscure: Robert Turbin, Pooh Bears (5.14)

Alright, we have to stop at round five because I don't know most of these players anymore. And there's only so much I can say about kickers, defenses, and random players' little CBS blurbs I click on. We got five more rounds to go and then the 2012 season will be ready for kickoff. Who's excited?!

Also, who else loves this elapsed time counter on the draft page? It allows us to do in-depth analysis like this:
Putting a lot of thought into it
9 hrs 18 min 48 sec - Italian Stallionz select Lions defense (5.4)
8 hrs 28 min 37 sec - Dunder Mifflin select Matt Cassel (5.12)
7 hrs 52 min 24 sec - Rhythm Drive select Matt Flynn (5.11)
7 hrs 35 min 48 sec - Detroit Players select Packers defense (4.5)
6 hrs 46 min 32 sec - Rhythm Drive select Donald Brown (2.11)

Quick draw award
29 sec - Dunder Mifflin select Malcolm Floyd (1.12)

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Franchise: MoRRie's Pogiboys

I doubt I'll have time to do this for every team, but over the years I've done this for every team in my other keeper league. So maybe that'll happen with time here. For now, we'll bring the focus onto MoRRie's Pogiboys!

Historical Record
Wouldn't you call a franchise that has won six division titles in eight seasons and compiled a sterling combined regular season record of 71-32-1 (0.683) a huge success? Of course you would. For MoRRie's Pogiboys, it's been one great run since 2004. Four straight division titles from 2004-7, including back to back seasons of 11-2 and 12-1. Alvin has been an ultra-involved GM, an owner willing to spend money, and also wields a commissioner's hammer with the power of Mjolnir. In many ways, this has been the model franchise.

Even when the Pogiboys have been down they've bounced right back. In their lone losing season (until last year), they bounced back with ten wins in 2009. And even though they hit the divisional cellar with 2011's 5-7-1 record, the Pogiboys have made bold moves to return to the top. It's truly been Alvin and the Chipmunks for most of the past decade and few teams can measure up to their sustained success, especially in the Western Conference.

However, this is a fan base that knows pain. Oh yes, the pain of having only one playoff win and a whole bunch of upsets in the post-season. Despite all these wins, all these accolodes, and millions spent on potential championship celebrations, there is no Maize and Blue crown for Alvin to wear. In five of their six trips to the playoffs, the Pogiboys have been upset by the first opponent they faced. That is not good. In their lone trip to the conference finals in 2004, they were defeated by eventual champ Another Bad Creation and never got that far again. MoRRie is sad.

Yes, this is a franchise that could rightfully be called "chokers." I know that's harsh, but I'm not sure how else to categorize a team that wins so often yet never comes through when the big lights turn on. The Pogiboys are the San Diego Chargers: always talented, always coming up short. Now with a startling roster transformation this off-season, Alvin hopes his perennial contender can finally enter the championship circle.

Core Roster
In the beginning there was Daunte. Mr. Culpepper set his career marks during the 2004 season and the Pogiboys were right there to benefit from his monster year. In that initial draft, Culpepper (#13 overall) was joined by a past his prime Marshall Faulk (#20), an up-and-coming Willis McGahee (#77), and Chad Johnson (#52) who was just finding his stride. Steve Smith and Todd Heap were high picks but ultimately lost most of 2004 to injuries. Also, true Go Blue fan Alvin leapt on the Drew Henson bandwagon in Round 8. Oh yeah, and former Wolverine Tyrone Wheatley in Round 10. What, was Desmond Howard retired?

After a conference finals showing, GM Alvin got to work, assembling the core of a team that would dominate for the next couple of years. Chad Johnson became a franchise caliber receiver, McGahee was a steady second running back, and Alvin turned Faulk, Smith, and Heap into Larry Johnson and Hines Ward. Let's be reminded of what Johnson did in 2005-6, which was total more than 4,000+ yards and score 40 TDs. Even though Steve Smith went on to some productive seasons, this was undoubtedly the greatest trade in Pogiboys' history.

Propelled by Johnson and Johnson (plus McGahee), Alvin kept half his keeper core intact for quite a long time, over four years. During this time, he continued to search for more franchise players, but took a few swings and misses on the likes of DeAngelo Williams, Roy Williams, Felix Jones, Michael Turner, and the most unfortunate move of all, acquiring Tom Brady -- who played a whopping quarter for the Pogis before getting his knee destroyed in 2008. You can't win'em all right?

It's incredible how many trades Alvin has been involved in over the years and that's part of the reason why he has had such sustained success. For example, when Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee starting fading, a trade for Frank Gore, and the drafting of Rashard Mendenhall kept the strong ground game alive. And Chad Johnson transitioned neatly to Calvin Johnson, even if there was always a rotating cast of cast of WRs looking to be paired opposite them. Some short term candidates included Deion Branch, Ward, Braylon Edwards, Roy Williams, and Sidney Rice. It wasn't until Larry Fitzgerald was acquired in 2010 that the Pogiboys had two superstar receivers on the roster.

How about at the helm? Who's been leading this team? After Culpepper's career collapsed, it was the Dallas Cowboys' QB era with Drew Bledsoe and Tony Romo for a brief period. But it was from another part of Texas that Alvin got his longest tenured signal caller, Matt Schaub. From 2008-2010, Schaub posted fantastic numbers for the Pogiboys. In total, he played five seasons for the team, and after an injury riddled 2011, Schaub was traded for two second round picks. Perfect use of a player's prime and then flipping him for assets. However, this marks the first time the Pogiboys will enter the draft without a quarterback on the roster. Rumors are that they could select Andrew Luck or RG3 with their recently acquired 2012 first overall pick -- in exchange for Fitzgerald and McGahee -- but that's not certain. Who will lead the Pogiboys into the future?

Over the years, Alvin has shown a propensity to bring back his favorites. Braylon Edwards, shipped out in 2007 for Roy Williams, returned to make the keeper roster in 2006, 2008, and 2009. Hines Ward came back a few times too. He was traded to the Pogis in 2005, cut and re-acquired via trade in 2007, and then re-re-acquired in another trade in 2010. And what about Willis McGahee? After starting strong with the Bills but then struggling with the Ravens, Alvin brought him right back when McGahee picked up his pace with the Broncos. What does Alvin do? Catch and release and track all of his former players like a wildlife program?

Normally I don't feature so many trades but since Alvin's been very active -- perhaps the most active general manager in all of Maize and Blue -- I found it interesting to trace how he got from there to here. Take a look at a long compilation of some of the major moves that have shaped Alvin's roster over the years. Including a curious trade for a kicker, John Kasay, in exchange for a second round draft pick in November 2005. Pushing for a title I guess?

The keeper roster heading into our new season is definitely the weakest the Pogis have ever had. That's what happens during a franchise rebuild. Calvin Johnson has emerged as the beastly Megatron, but most everything else around him is shaky. Beanie Wells, acquired for the price of two RD1 picks, still has to prove himself. Rashard Mendenhall is coming off a ghastly injury. Same with Mikel Leshoure. Greg Little was selected in the fourth round of last year's draft, and who knows if he's ready to be a factor this season. At least the tight end position is looking secure for the upcoming future. Aaron Hernandez was selected by the Pogis in RD9 two years ago and then scooped up via free agency for his breakout 2011. He's gonna be a longtime keeper.

After a season at the bottom, Alvin looked around and hit the reset button. We love bold moves like this and wish MoRRie's Pogiboys much continued success. And at least one more playoff win!
Season Breakdowns
2011: 5-7-1; Lost five games to end the regular season, upset in first round of consolidation ladder by WS Tartars
2010: 8-5; Won division title, an up and down season that saw a three game losing streak and then a three game winning streak to close the regular season, upset in first round by Another Bad Creation
2009: 10-3;
Won division title, bounced back to become second overall seed heading into playoffs, upset in first round by Team Cameltoe
2008: 6-7; Started off 0-3, fought back to 5-5 but collapsed and missed the playoffs for the first time in franchise history
2007: 10-3;
Won division title, started off 5-0 but was upset in first round by Another Bad Creation
2006: 12-1;
Won division title, second overall seed heading into playoffs, almost undefeated except for a loss in WK6, upset in first round by Thundercats
2005: 11-2;
Won division title, top seed overall heading into playoffs, started off 0-2 before ripping off eleven straight wins, upset in first round by Rhythm Drive
2004: 9-4;
Won division title, two 3-0 streaks to bookend the season, defeated in conference finals by eventual champion Another Bad Creation

Saturday, August 11, 2012

2012 Keeper Analysis: Western Conference

It was a dark day when EA Sports took all the football licensing rights away from other video games. However, 2K Sports circumvented that by using NFL legends in their All-Pro Football 2K8 game, which allowed you to draft a team filled with Hall of Famers and former stars.
"You get to select two Gold Star players (Joe Montana, Ronnie Lott, etc.), three Silver Star players (Randal Cunningham, Leslie O'Neal, etc.), and six Bronze Star players (Jim Harbaugh, Alvin Harper, etc.). In other words: Gold = Hall of Famer; Silver = Pro Bowler; Bronze = Played in the NFL."
Using that system, I'm awarding gold, silver, and bronze stars for this year's keeper cores -- skewed toward the upcoming 2012 season. Gold means this player is a franchise player or one of the best at his position. Silver is a solid starter. Bronze is a so-so starter. No stars is well, no stars. So here we go, a totally arbitrary ranking of everyone's 2012 keepers with gold, silver, bronze being worth 3/2/1 points respectively. [East review]

Ba-Donka-Donk
Another Bad Creation (13): Aaron Rodgers (3) Marshawn Lynch (3) Darren McFadden (2) Andre Johnson (2) Vincent Jackson (2) Robert Meachem (1)
Rhythm Drive (12): Philip Rivers (2) Michael Turner (2) Matt Forte (2) Willis McGahee (1) Larry Fitzgerald (3) Greg Jennings (2)
Jedi Knights (10): Peyton Manning (2) Andy Dalton (2) Alex Green (0) Wes Welker (3) Marques Colston (2) Jermaine Gresham (1)
P Funk All Stars (4): Joe Flacco (1) Sam Bradford (1) Pierre Thomas (1) Mark Ingram (1) James Starks (0) Montario Hardesty (0)

Another Bad Creation has the most stars in this division but that comes with a big caveat because both Darren McFadden and Andre Johnson are so injury prone. Vincent Jackson could move up a notch but we'll have to see how he does in Tampa Bay. And can you believe Marshawn Lynch is a franchise caliber RB? Yes!

Rhythm Drive has a very nice keeper core, with depth and strength all the way down the roster. Acquiring Larry Fitzgerald -- and to a lesser extent, Willis McGahee -- really put a bee in their bonnet and announces their push for a championship run behind Philip Rivers, Michael Turner, and Matt Forte.

The Jedi Knights have a potential QB battle and a big hole at RB, unless you think Alex Green is the answer. Right now Green's getting no stars until he shows us something. Prognosticators say that Jermaine Gresham could become a star at TE, but for now he's just a bronze player. The Knights have the perfect PPR receiver in Wes Welker, except we don't play PPR (yet?).

And what about P Funk All Stars, who are currently misnamed "all stars." Flacco is a borderline starter and Sam Bradford should be a zero based on his 2011 stats, but he still has some promise so we'll throw him a bone. And then there's the two star backfield, which features Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram from the same team and non-factors James Starks and Montario Hardesty. For our money, we would have maybe taken a stab at keeping Kevin Smith around. This team needs to rebuild, fast.

Deez Nuts
Hungry Hungry Ouroboros (10): Matt Ryan (2) Darren Sproles (2) Victor Cruz (2) Mike Wallace (2) Eric Decker (0) Antonio Gates (2)
MoRRie's Pogiboys (10): Rashard Mendenhall (2) Beanie Wells (1) Mikel Leshoure (0) Calvin Johnson (3) Greg Little (1) Aaron Hernandez (3)
Ann Arbor Bamfers (9): Eli Manning (3) Fred Jackson (2) Frank Gore (2) Peyton Hillis (1) CJ Spiller (1) Doug Baldwin (0)
Team Cameltoe (9): Jay Cutler (1) Shonn Greene (2) Roy Helu (1) Jeremy Maclin (2) Julio Jones (2) Jacob Tamme (1)

Hungry Hungry Ouroboros and MoRRie's Pogiboys had polar opposite off-seasons. Ouroboros upgraded their keepers by trading Drew Brees while Pogiboys downgraded in a youth movement, trading away two starting caliber running backs. The Pogiboys still have Calvin Johnson and Aaron Hernandez but the rest of the keepers are suspect, especially with Rashard Mendenhall on the mend. The Ouroboros have more depth than when they started but will have to wait on the Mike Wallace situation to play itself out.

The intra-division trade by Pogiboys netted Ann Arbor Bamfers a declining but still solid Frank Gore. Along with franchise caliber QB Eli Manning and a possible top six back in Fred Jackson, there's some good stuff here. Well, except in the receiver department, which literally has a zero. CJ Spiller could challenge Fred Jackson for time here, and Peyton Hillis is going to score some short yardage TDs at the very least.

While Team Cameltoe has the same number of stars as the Bamfers, much of that strength is focused in wide receivers Jeremy Maclin and Julio Jones. Tight end Jacob Tamme could quickly elevate himself though, with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball. And while Jay Cutler's best fantasy days are probably behind him, Shonn Greene and Roy Helu both have the potential to get a lot more carries this year.

2012 Keeper Analysis: Eastern Conference

As we all know, keepers don't mean a thing but it sure is fun to evaluate them now that they've been officially declared. Part one covered the Western Conference, now here's the East.

Lebowski Achievers
Mandalorian Warriors (15): Drew Brees (3) LeSean McCoy (3) Steven Jackson (2) Jordy Nelson (2) Brandon Marshall (2) Rob Gronkowski (3)
Dunder Mifflin Paper Company (13): Tony Romo (2) Arian Foster (3) Chris Johnson (3) Ben Tate (1) Dwayne Bowe (2) Vernon Davis (2)
WS Tartars (12): Matt Schaub (1) Maurice Jones-Drew (3) Roddy White (3) Steve Johnson (2) Torrey Smith (1) Brandon Pettigrew (2)
Detroit Players (11): DeMarco Murray (2) Ryan Williams (0) AJ Green (2) Steve Smith (3) Hakeem Nicks (2) Jason Witten (2)

The Mandalorian Warriors are going all in this year and they have three gold players at QB/RB/TE. And the rest of their team is extremely solid too, with Steven Jackson, Jordy Nelson, and Brandon Marshall aboard. In fact, Nelson could be rated a third star if he can repeat last season's performance. This is the keeper core to beware heading into 2012.

Of course, Dunder Mifflin Paper Company might have a say here as they have the incredible running back duo of Arian Foster and Chris Johnson. Tony Romo and Vernon Davis have the potential to finish top of the charts at their respective positions and if not-Michael Scott can find Dwayne Bowe some help, the Paper Company is going to be more than just the talk of Scranton.

Both the WS Tartars and Detroit Players have keepers with definite strengths and weaknesses. The Tartars are strong with Maurice Jones-Drew and Roddy White, and have underrated receivers in Steve Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew. However they have a decent sized hole at QB with Matt Schaub, unless he can recapture his form from a few years ago. We're not sure that's going to happen now with the Texans featuring a strong running game.

If there's one team that needs a QB bad, it's the Players. It's extra unfortunate as Steve Smith, AJ Green, Hakeem Nicks, and Jason Witten are quite the receiving corps. We're giving DeMarco Murray the benefit of the doubt this year -- based on his mid-season stretch -- but so far there's been no return on the high draft pick used on Ryan Williams.

7 Championship Drive
100 Acre Pooh Bears (15): Cam Newton (3) Ray Rice (3) Ryan Mathews (2) Dez Bryant (2) Antonio Brown (2) Jimmy Graham (3)
Italian Stallionz (12): Tom Brady (3) Jamaal Charles (2) Felix Jones (1) Percy Harvin (3) Kenny Britt (1) Tony Gonzalez (2)
Squirtle Squad (12): Michael Vick (2) Adrian Peterson (3) Brandon Lloyd (2) Miles Austin (1) Denarius Moore (1) Jermichael Finley (3)
Human Amoebas (11): Matthew Stafford (3) Ahmad Bradshaw (2) DeAngelo Williams (2) DeSean Jackson (2) Pierre Garcon (2) Jon Baldwin (0)

The Pooh Bears are coming for the (honey) belt! Of course, they would look a lot better if Ryan Mathews wasn't just injured -- downgrading him to two stars -- but there's plenty of talent otherwise. Cam Newton, Ray Rice, and Jimmy Graham are three star players. Dez Bryant and Antonio Brown could both get there. This is a scary team for the future, and the present.

Entering his sophomore year as owner, GM Porta of the Italian Stallionz should be in win now mode with Tom Brady leading his team. The problem is nobody knows if Jamaal Charles is fully ready and if/when Kenny Britt is going to stop being a knucklehead. Percy Harvin has emerged as a near franchise guy though, which is pretty huge.

We're giving a lot of credit to Adrian Peterson by giving him three stars without seeing him hit the field. However, we believe he'll be back in time to make a difference for Squirtle Squad. And we're not sure what to do with WRs Miles Austin and Brandon Lloyd. Austin has been less than spectacular recently and Lloyd is moving to a new situation where he won't receive nearly as many targets. We split the difference and effectively gave them both 1.5 stars. Michael Vick and Jermichael Finley have the talent to be the best at their positions but they're also both guaranteed to miss games with injuries

The Human Amoebas have Matthew Stafford and a bunch of solid but second tier position players in Ahmad Bradshaw, DeAngelo Williams, DeSean Jackson, and Pierre Garcon. A second franchise guy here could push them into contention. Wasn't it Ayn Rand who asked "Who is Jon Baldwin?" Okay maybe not. We literally had to look up who Jon Baldwin was. Without that zero, this keeper core could have been a few points higher.

Top Five Keeper Cores
  1. Mandalorian Warriors (15): No holes, in it to win it.
  2. 100 Acre Pooh Bears (15): Solid on paper but Newton, Brown, and Bryant all have to prove themselves again.
  3. Dunder Mifflin Paper Company (13): Our sleeper pick for best team in the league.
  4. Another Bad Creation (13): Great roster on paper, but injury concerns abound.
  5. Rhythm Drive (12): Italian Stallionz and Squirtle Squad also had the same number of stars but we'll go with Rhythm Drive's keepers as they don't have injury issues anywhere.

Friday, August 10, 2012

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Early Round Wheeling and Dealing

As I looked over the upcoming draft, it was hard to ignore that eleven of the picks from the first round, and six out of sixteen from the second were moved in previous trades. That's a lot of movement. Coming from my keeper league, where draft picks are rarely used as currency, I was interested in what all this wheeling and dealing resulted in. So here we go, a look at all the draft day trades involving first and second round picks from the last three years (2009-2011).

Some of these trades haven't fully vested of course, but we can still get a pretty good idea of what's happened with these moves completed. Here's a look at some of the interesting ones.

2009 #71: Marques Colston for DeSean Jackson, Brady Quinn, Percy Harvin (2009 1.9), Owen Daniels (2009 1.15), Cadillac Williams (2010 1.12): That's quite a haul for just one player. Colston was coming off of an injury wrecked year and would go on to produce 1,000+ receiving yards and 9 TDs. Not bad but DeSean Jackson exploded for 1,150+ and 9 TDs himself in his sophomore year while Percy Harvin also got into the action with about 800 yards and 6 TDs. The lesson here could be don't send the farm for a non-franchise player?

2010 84: Adrian Peterson for Clinton Portis, Joseph Addai, Eddie Royal, Malcolm Floyd (1.11), Roy Helu (1.14): Even though Peterson busted his ACL, this trade is still a big win for the owner who received All Day. Portis, Addai, and Royal weren't as good as advertised. Oh but wait, Helu was flipped for Steven Jackson and Michael Crabtree. Did that even things out a bit? Crabtree was in his sophomore year and racked up 741 yards and 6 TDs in 2010. Underwhelming. Jackson was nice but he was clearly no Peterson. Basically it was Jackson and the pupu platter for the best running back in the land.

2009 85: LeSean McCoy (2009 1.7) for Darren Sproles (2009 1.8) and 2012 2.9: This 2012 RD2 pick could make up a lot of ground for this trade. Sure Sproles has become an asset recently but there's no arguing that LeSean McCoy is far and away the better fantasy player moving forward, even after notching only less than 200 yards combined his rookie year.

2011 87: Mike Sims-Walker (1.8) for Hakeem Nicks (1.12): Considering Sims-Walker could be out of the league after he caught twelve balls total last year, this was hugely lopsided. Nicks was dinged up but still managed 1,192 yards and 7 TDs in 2011.

2010 86: Darren Sproles (1.8) for Santana Moss (1.13), Eddie Royal (2.16): At the time, this was a wash, as Sproles was still mired in San Diego and putting up less than 800 yards combined. Royal was considered up and coming and went on to post 600+ yards and 3 TDs before fading. Moss had a great 2010 season, posting 1,115 yards with 6 TDs. However, Sproles then turned the tables one year later, becoming a yardage monster for New Orleans. He outproduced both Moss and Royal in receiving yards just on his lonesome in 2011.

2009 90: Tim Hightower (2009 2.15) and Brett Favre (2009 3.6) for Bernard Scott (2009 2.6): This was the year Favre went off for 4,200+ yards and 33 TDs. We'll go ahead and say that Bernard Scott probably didn't put up numbers like that. Also, who is Bernard Scott?!

2010 103: Ryan Mathews (1.2) for Sam Bradford (1.4), Lee Evans (2.13), Robert Meachem (3.13): It took awhile for Mathews to find his footing but nobody can argue that this trade isn't completely lopsided two years later. Bradford looked like a franchise caliber QB his rookie year but now it's Mathews who has taken the fantasy lead. Possibly forever.

2010 107: Michael Bush for Laurent Robinson (3.10): Bush wasn't fed a lot of carries yet but he still churned up 655 yards on the ground and added 194 through the air. Plus he added eight touchdowns. Mr. Robinson had a disastrous time with the Rams, putting up 300+ yards and 2 TDs. Both players performed better in 2011 but Bush still maintained his value by going over 1,300 combined yards and dropping in the same number of touchdowns. Robinson had almost 900 yards for Dallas and an impressive 11 TDs. Now he's in Jacksonville however. We're guessing he didn't sit on the roster of the owner who initially traded for him very long.

2010 108: CJ Spiller (1.5) and 2012 RD1 (1.6) for Beanie Wells: Spiller hasn't even done much as a player yet but him plus a first rounder for Beanie Wells seems wonderful in retrospect. Someone really believed in injury prone Beanie when they trade two firsts for him. Ouch.

2011 122: Larry Fitzgerald and Kendall Hunter (5.6) for Marcedes Lewis (1.11) and 2013 RD3 (3.?): I don't even know what's going on here. Short of that 2013 RD3 pick becoming Tom Brady, Marcedes Lewis for Larry Fitzgerald seems like it should have been outlawed! We're thinking that was a future first traded for the chance of winning the lottery. Or maybe someone just really loved Marcedes Lewis?

2011 125: Ben Roethlisberger, LaDanian Tomlinson, Mike Wallace for Joe Flacco, James Starks, Austin Collie, Knowshon Moreno (1.6), Joseph Addai (2.2), 2012 RD1 (1.13), 2013 RD1 (1.?): This one is very interesting. Mike Wallace should swing this trade heavily toward the first team's favor, even with Tomlinson ending up nigh useless and Big Ben having an off year. However, even though Flacco, Starks, Collie, Moreno, and Addai were near worthless, there are two first round picks still coming to maybe even this trade out. Draft well whoever owns those selections!

2011 126: Steven Jackson and Michael Crabtree for Roy Helu (1.14): A secondary flip in the aforementioned Adrian Peterson trade. We'll go with the Jackson and Crabtree side, even though Helu has some promise. And considering Helu netted two RD2 picks this off-season, the trade may have already paid off for his past owner.

2011 127: LeSean McCoy for Tim Tebow, Julio Jones (1.2), Daniel Thomas (1.4), 2012 RD1 (1.10): The toughest trade to evaluate. Would you rather have one of the best RBs in fantasy or Tebow's magical run last year, plus a very promising WR prospect, and another RD1 pick? Heck, even Daniel Thomas could work out here. This seemed like a huge "now versus later" gamble and it's still hard to gauge. We'll give the edge to the McCoy side but Jones, Thomas, and that RD1 could eventually make a difference.


Out of thirty four trades, I could only find about a half dozen that resulted in lopsided deals. And some of those couldn't even be called outright wins or losses. What was interesting to me was that there were a few defenses selected with those second rounders. If I said pre-draft that I'd give you a defense for a player, you'd laugh your ass right off! Yet when the draft clock starts ticking, the top defenses sometimes look mighty tempting.

While no conclusive evidence can be made at looking at these first and second round moves, the most important rule is always: draft like your life depends on it. Because it does!

Friday, August 3, 2012

Shoving Into Overdrive

On Saturday August 4th, 12:01 AM EST, the call went out.  "Cougar lost it, turned in his wings. You're number one on the wait list."  After years of patiently biding his time, Jon will finally be joining the ranks of the elite.  How elite?  Only the top 1% of all naval aviators fantasy football owners get to join Maize and Blue.  Millions of fantasy players in this country and only sixteen make the cut.

After a bit of investigative reporting, and a timely electric outage over the greater Michigan area that prevented him from reaching the outside world, it's been revealed that Thundercats' owner Cougar couldn't pay the franchise fee.  Despite winning their first championship in 2011, so much cash was paid out for in-season headhunting prizes -- not the mention the post-season celebratory parades, extravagant catered dinners, and championship belts/rings -- that Cougar was left with no money for the upcoming year.  "It just doesn't pay to win," he said at the formal press conference abdicating his throne.

A Thundercat PR intern (unpaid) then quickly stepped in, "What Cougar meant to say is that we wanted to go out on top.  The Thundercats are a proud franchise that has accumulated a 33-17-2 record since going 5-7-1 in 2007.  We rose from the depths five years ago and accomplished what we set out to do.  Management felt strongly that there were no challenges left ahead of us.  And this won't be a fake retirement, we won't be coming back like Jordan, wearing the 4-5. We're going to retire and stay retired. Like Tiki Barber."

Shuffle off stage right, Cougar and his entourage. A big round of applause for our champs!

And just like that, the new era of Thundercats football began.  Not five minutes into his regime, Jon has already made sweeping changes.  "New cheerleaders, new uniforms, and a new name.  Also, effective immediately, the entire front office is fired.  Including Nate Burleson."

"But Nate Burleson didn't work in the front office."

"I don't care, his contract is non-guaranteed. And he makes shitty coffee."

A bus is scheduled for Friday, August 10th, to pick up Drew Brees, Victor Cruz, Antonio Gates, Brandon Lloyd, and two players to be named later, but nothing else would be going from Michigan to San Diego.

"We want to sever all ties and start fresh," Jon announced.  "We've already secured a ten year lease to play our home games in Shamu Stadium.  Don't worry, we are not displacing the killer whales.  Corky, Kasatka, Ulisses, Orkid, Keet, Nakai, Ikaika and Kalia will be featured in our halftime show. If you don't want to get wet, stay out of the Splash Zone. If you want to be part of a winning tradition, buy your lifetime seat licences now."

Already full of innovative ideas, Owner Jon let General Manager Jon outline one of them. "While most franchises in Maize and Blue only have one authoritarian head coach, we've decided to follow the current trend of uber-specialization in the NFL."

Dramatic pause.

"I'm happy to announce that our defense and special teams will be coached by an expert in these matters, Mr. Kelvin.  He'll definitely be helping out with the dance team too.  If he does good there, by mid-season we hope he'll take charge of our kicking game as well.  We feel that with a bit of extra experience, he'll soon be elevated to the top job at another Maize and Blue franchise."  Defensive/dance coordinator Kelvin was unavailable for comment as he had to sit at home with his newborn baby.

"Thank you to everyone for being so welcoming, we're just wondering who's the best. Chances are, we'll be the answer to our own question," said a confident team representative maybe named Jon. "See you in Miramar, boys!"