Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Draft Review 2013

The draft is still in it's ending stages, but let's go ahead and do a quick review. And here was 2012's draft review in case you wanna refresh your memory.

Round One
There was some intrigue at the top of the draft as first time GM Hong would be doing the selecting for Human Amoebas. Without a sure thing running back coming out of the collegiate ranks, this pick could already become make or break for Hong. After days of agonizing, GM Hong chose to tap Le'veon Bell to become his back of the future. (In a league called Maize and Blue, Hong decides to go with a Michigan State player first? Traitor!) Shockingly, he had a shot at another young RB with Amoeba's second first round selection, 1.06, and took Montee Ball -- whom he was considering for number one overall. In one fell swoop, Hong got two highly touted rookies to take over the running duties from Ahmad Bradshaw and DeAngelo Williams. Brilliant, now it's Ball and Bell into the future!

At 1.02, P Funk All-Stars needed some star power and went for "sure thing" wideout Tavon Austin. We like this pick, as Paolo desperately needed someone on the roster capable of making a fantasy Pro Bowl. Paolo can only hope that Austin becomes the game changer he's advertised to be as we're positive his two other late first rounders won't become breakouts -- TE Jared Cook (1.14) and RB Ryan Mathews (1.15).

The most interesting story of the draft was how Pogiboys moved up to grab two of the top four selections, and now had four first rounders total. His haul ended up being Lamar Miller (1.03), Eddie Lacy (1.04), and DeSean Jackson (1.09). Plus a trade away of a pick for Tom Brady. With those selections, Alvin could have rebuilt his team and made the moves to return to the post-season. Nicely done.

Let's talk about autopicks. The reason Montee Ball slipped to Amoebas at 1.06, and also Giovani Bernard to Hungry Hungry Ouroboros at 1.07, was because Wayne State Tartars let the computer do their picking for them. With multiple needs, and an especially glaring hole in the receiving department, Jay took Seahawks DST at 1.05 and then Andy Dalton at 1.08. That early defense pick was obviously, well, indefensible. And even though Dalton could make nice insurance for Ben Roethlisberger, quarterbacks were readily available a few rounds later. It's safe to say that we could see the Tartars picking low high again next year.

Porta's Italian Stallionz beefed up their receiving corps by adding something new, DeAndre Hopkins, and something old, Anquan Boldin. Dunder Mifflin Paper Company hopes Miles Austin can still be a #2 receiver behind Dwayne Bowe, we think he can be. We also like Shane Vereen, selected by 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears at 1.10. He'll have plenty of time to develop behind Ray Rice and Doug Martin. The Detroit Players finished up the round by taking the fifth rooking RB, the Seahawks' Christine Michael. It would be fantastic if Michael could be pressed into duty immediately as Ariel's team only has DeMarco Murray around. But we're pretty sure Michael won't get much work behind Marshawn Lynch.

Best pick: Montee Ball, Human Amoebas (1.06)
Most obscure: Christine Michael, Detroit Players (1.16)
Total RD1 Picks Traded Previously: Nine

Round Two
P Funk may have gotten a steal with Andre Brown at the top of RD2. That, along with his later addition in the same round of BenJarvus Green-Ellis will really help shore up his non-existent backfield previously consisting of Mark Ingram. Rhythm Drive got on board in the 2013 draft with auto-pick Bernard Pierce. The 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears were still reeling from losing Ray Rice's handcuff when they jumped on Rams' receiver Chris Givens, who could emerge in his second year.

Speaking of handcuffs, Ben Tate, free agent to be, might be an absolute steal here, as Arian Foster is dinged up. Foster now belongs to Dunder Mifflin Paper Company and it would be interesting to see if this is finally Foster's year to stick on a roster. Hungry Ouroboros snapped up Johnathan Franklin for another wild card rookie running back shot.

They were a lot of high upside, low track history receivers grabbed this round: Givens, Cordarrelle Patterson (Detroit Players), Robert Woods (Human Amoebas), Kenny Britt (Ann Arbor Bamfers), Golden Tate (Another Bad Creation), and Emmanuel Sanders (Jedi Knights). Any one of these guys could emerge as solid contributors. For our money, we like Golden Tate, who just sounds like he should be a star.

Interestingly, 100 Acre Pooh Bears took rookie QB E.J. Manuel at 2.14, ahead of many other established signal callers. He'll sit the pine behind Cam Newton. J must have seen something in Manuel he deeply coveted. The Pooh Bears had three second rounders and added Lance Moore to the mix along with Manuel and Givens.

Defending champ Mandalorian Warriors grabbed Bears DST and Greg Olsen to flesh out their spectacular keeper core. We think going defense this early -- on purpose -- is dicey, but perhaps getting a top tier defense in such a deep league is worth it. Someone do a study on this. Oh wait, that someone should be me!

Best pick: Ben Tate, Dunder Mifflin Paper Company (2.12)
Hardest name to spell: Cordarrelle Patterson, Detroit Players (2.07)
Total RD2 Picks Traded Previously: Six

Round Three
Man, this draft got shallow real quick. Ryan Broyles, Jordan Cameron, Rueben Randle, Marcus Lattimore, Zac Stacy, and Denarius Moore were six of the first seven picks. Not a one of them have any sort of track record. But that's what we like about a sixteen team league: Mining for gems! We see some potential on that list but it's almost guaranteed that only a few of these guys will work out. We're thinking maybe Rueben Randle has the best shot, as Hakeem Nicks is clearly on the decline.

A handful of backup quarterbacks were taken here: Josh Freeman (Wayne State Tartars), Jay Cutler (Human Amoebas), and Carson Palmer (Morrie's Pogiboys). Yes that means WS Tartars now has Roethlisberger, Dalton, and Freeman to man one quarterback position. And guess what, Freeman was another auto-draft pick… Paging Jay, paging Jay...

Three team defenses were selected this round, which again, intrigues me because technically we're in about RD9 of a full on draft, and maybe that's when defenses could go off the board but it seems awfully early. Then again, it's not like selecting DEF early is a new thing. Last year Paolo selected 49ers at 1.14 and they ended up being the seventh best defense. Is selecting any top defense really that worth it? It's a crapshoot no?

Three way tie for people most owners probably needed to Google goes to Tyler Eifert, Aaron Dobson, and Kenbrell Thompkins. The later two are New England's young receivers, and it's clear that Porta and J are mining for Wes Welker successors.

Best pick: Not Josh Freeman, Wayne State Tartars (3.04)
Correct way to pronouce "Eifer": Does it rhyme with "effort" or is it "eeeee-fert?" Maybe a silent e? I-fert?
Total draft picks Pogiboys had at the conclusion of RD3: Nine, with a few traded away during the draft

Round Four
This was the quarterback round, as Matt Schaub, Brandon Weeden, Alex Smith, Geno Smith, Michael Vick, and Jake Locker all went in the top half of the round. Last year there really wasn't a quarterback rush at all, as a few were selected during each 2012 round. Perhaps that speaks to how many middling and intriguing QBs there are now.

We think Team Cameltoe could possibly get a steal if Sidney Rice ever finds his way back on a field. To wrap up the round, some low upside RBs such as Bryce Brown, Bilal Powell, Danny Woodhead, and Shonn Greene were snapped up. Actually, Brown could be very useful if LeSean McCoy ever goes down, he's proven to capable of some big numbers when given carries. Did the computer just make an okay pick for Tartars? Whoopee!

Last year we evaluated the top five rounds but we're stopping one round earlier this season. Round five saw our first kicker, Stephen Gostkowski taken at 3.01, and from there on down it was a smattering of young guys, veterans that have busted, and the usual riffraff. Next year we may have to change up the format of the draft review, as I've really got no idea if say, Knile Davis, Stepfan Taylor, Rod Streater is a good pick or not. Seriously, who are they? You guys must be doing some super deep research.

Oh right, and Squirtle Squad won the Denard Robinson sweepstakes at 5.05. "During offseason workouts [Robinson] played as a running back, quarterback, wideout and also returned kickoffs and punts. But he would drop passes, fumble snaps and not bring in punts." Go Blue!

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

2013 Keeper Analysis: Eastern Conference

Last Friday was an important day as hope floated for every franchise. Everyone declared their keepers for a fresh new season so let's take a look at who's already off the board pre-draft. Note: For this season, I added a +X number in front of the score to indicate if the keeper core improved or declined. And here is the 2012 East and West recaps, along with an explanation of the tried and true gold/silver/bronze ranking system.

Lebowski Achievers
Mandalorian Warriors +2(17): Drew Brees (3) LeSean McCoy (3) Steven Jackson (2) Roddy White (3) Brandon Marshall (3) Rob Gronkowski (3)
Dunder Mifflin Paper Company +0(13): Tony Romo (2) Arian Foster (3) Chris Johnson (2) Dwayne Bowe (2) Vernon Davis (3) Malcolm Floyd (1)
Detroit Players +1(12): Robert Griffin III (3) DeMarco Murray (1) AJ Green (3) Mike Williams (2) Hakeem Nicks (1) Kyle Rudolph (2)
WS Tartars -3(9): Ben Roethlisberger (2) Maurice Jones-Drew (2) Jonathan Stewart (1) Steve Johnson (1) Torrey Smith (2) Brandon Pettigrew (1)

It's gross but the defending champs have actually increased their talent level. By subtracting Jordy Nelson and adding Roddy White, Matt's team jumps up another level. If Steven Jackson becomes a top ten back, Mandalorian Warriors will have gold level players at every position, as Brandon Marshall has (re-)cemented himself as a top tier receiver. The only weakness on this keeper core is how long Gronk stays out. Hopefully forever, if the rest of the league has its way...

Dunder Mifflin Paper Company substitutes Malcolm Floyd in for Arian Foster handcuff Ben Tate. Overall Mike's team retains the same keeper value because while Vernon Davis jumps up a notch with the injuries to many top tight ends, Chris Johnson's days as a franchise caliber player could be over. Then again, with a new offensive coordinator, maybe he can get back on track. If Johnson can rebuild his value, the Paper Company can be true contenders.

Last year at this time, Detroit Players desperately needed a quarterback. After selecting Robert Griffin III with the #4 overall pick, it's safe to say that Ariel's found a good one. That's not the only change to the core group. Steve Smith was traded away to make room for the underrated Mike Williams while Jason Witten was flipped in the same trade, opening up the tight end position for Kyle Rudolph. DeMarco Murray and Hakeem Nicks are still on board too, but both have seen better days. (Oh, and farewell Ryan Williams! You were good for nothing!) We like the moves here, as Ariel clearly has an eye on getting younger while staying competitive.

Every other team in this division increased or stayed steady on the keeper power rankings, save for WS Tartars. That difference can almost directly be attributed to the loss of Roddy White, who was traded to Mandalorian Warriors last season. Ben Roethlisberger inherits the reins from Matt Schaub, and Jonathan Stewart was added to the mix. Overall however, Maurice Jones-Drew, Stevie Johnson, and Brandon Pettigrew all saw their stocks fall last season. To stay competitive in Lebowski Achievers, Jay will have to hope they bounce back -- or rebuild quickly.

The Wood
100 Acre Pooh Bears +2(17): Cam Newton (3) Ray Rice (3) Doug Martin (3) Dez Bryant (3) Antonio Brown (2) Jimmy Graham (3)
Italian Stallionz +3(15): Tom Brady (3) Matt Stafford (2) Jamaal Charles (3) Stevan Ridley (2) Reggie Wayne (2) Tony Gonzalez (2)
Human Amoebas +1(12): Andrew Luck (3) Ahmad Bradshaw (1) DeAngelo Williams (1) Demaryius Thomas (3) Pierre Garcon (2) Cecil Shorts (2)
Squirtle Squad -2(10): Ryan Tannehill (1) Adrian Peterson (3) Ronnie Hillman (1) Reggie Cobb (3) T.Y. Hilton (1) Josh Gordon (1)

The Pooh Bears still rule the 100 Acre Woods -- formerly 7 Championship Drive -- but they had some unexpected competition last year from Italian Stallionz. No problem, as J'as team upgraded by dumping the carcass of Ryan Mathews for Doug Martin, last year's #2 overall pick and rookie sensation. With Dez Bryant elevating himself a level, the Pooh Bears are even better from a 2012 keeper roster that was already one of the best. Who else is scared?

The aforementioned Italian Stallionz also improved themselves a bit, continuing their upward trajectory under new ownership. Jamaal Charles proved that he's a top back one year removed from ACL surgery, and while losing Percy Harvin hurts, the additions of old standby Reggie Wayne and Stevan Ridley are better than last year's keepers of Felix Jones and Kenny Britt. We are a little curious why Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford are both on this roster -- the latter acquired by moving 2012's #5 overall pick, Demaryius Thomas -- but we're guessing a follow up trade fell through somewhere. With a super solid keeper core, the Stallionz will be pushing toward a title this season.

Stepping in to make day-to-day decisions for Eric, the Human Amoebas made a bold move behind new GM Hong. Moving Matt Stafford for Demaryius Thomas results in a huge upgrade as Thomas is a bonafide franchise receiver. Add in the surprising Cecil Shorts and the Amoebas now have quite the improved collection of receivers -- DeSean Jackson and whoever Jon Baldwin is, were jettisoned -- to go along with last year's surprise #3 overall pick Andrew Luck. While Ahmad Bradshaw and DeAngelo Williams both fell from grace last year, there is hope that with two early picks in this year's draft, Human Amoebas can find at least one keeper worthy running back for the future.

This is very interesting. Squirtle Squad was our champion just a few short seasons ago and yet things have fallen completely apart. Five of six keepers are different for Brian this year, as he moves to quickly put a contender together. Out goes Michael Vick, Miles Austin, Brandon Lloyd, Denarius Moore, and Jermichael Finley. Coming in are Ryan Tannehill, Reggie Cobb, T.Y. Hilton, Josh Gordon, and Ronnie Hillman. Cobb and Hilton are up-and-coming receivers, and Gordon could be too. We're not sure Tannehill is a keeper worthy quarterback but he can't be more disappointing than the erratic Vick -- and he was part of last season's trade. With MVP Adrian Peterson on board, the Squirtles have a strong run game, but they would sure love it if Hillman, last year's second round pick, could step up into a playable role.

2013 Keeper Analysis: Western Conference

Part two of our keeper analysis. The Eastern Conference review is here.

Ba-Donka-Donk
Jedi Knights +4(14): Peyton Manning (3) Alfred Morris (2) Wes Welker (2) Marques Colston (2) Steve Smith (2) Jason Witten (3)
Another Bad Creation +0(13): Aaron Rodgers (3) Marshawn Lynch (2) Darren McFadden (2) Reggie Bush (2) Andre Johnson (2) Vincent Jackson (2)
Rhythm Drive -3(9): Philip Rivers (2) Matt Forte (3) Willis McGahee (0) Larry Fitzgerald (3) Greg Jennings (1) Giants (0)
P Funk All Stars +1(5): Joe Flacco (1) Sam Bradford (1) Mark Ingram (1) Justin Blackmon (1) Michael Floyd (1) 49ers (0)

Honestly, who thought Jedi Knights would rise from the depths to win the regular season crown? With a keeper core that featured two quarterbacks and something named Alex Green, Chris' team wasn't looking to trend upward anytime soon. Voila, a short season later, his keeper core ranks out as the best of the West. Peyton Manning re-established himself as a top flight option, a post-2012 draft trade for Alfred Morris paid off in spades, costing only a 2020 third rounder (Yes, you read that correctly, a 2020 draft pick). And a pre-draft trade brought in Steve Smith and Jason Witten, who are both productive veterans. Witten is actually a gold caliber tight end this year, even though he can't score touchdowns.

Oliver's Another Bad Creation isn't far behind Jedi Knights for keeper quality. With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, ABC brings back two productive running backs in Marshawn Lynch and Darren McFadden, and also has a rejuvenated Vincent Jackson to pair with a possibly declining Andre Johnson. New third back Reggie Bush replaces Robert Meachem and will provide nice insurance for when McFadden goes down to injury. In a weak division, this keeper core is plenty to contend for a division title.

Okay we're not sure what happened here but both Rhythm Drive and P Funk All Stars elected to keep defenses. We assume it's because they didn't select any keepers but who's to say. A sign that there's no lights on upstairs is that Rhythm Drive has Willis McGahee on their roster, the same Willis McGahee who currently has no NFL home. What?! The good news is that even with two absolute zero scores for keepers, Reno's team still has Larry Fitzgerald, Matt Forte, and Philip Rivers giving the team some semblance of respectability. Aging Greg Jennings could also be of value, as he's now the top dog in Minnesota. If only that Giants defense had been Santana Moss or Coby Fleener, or even Michael Turner, who has no NFL home either. That would have fit with the McGahee theme at least.

We literally have no idea what is going on in P Funk land. We move that they no longer can have "All-Stars" in their name, unless it's for irony. These All-Stars received a whopping score of four for their keepers last year -- including one each for two mediocre quarterbacks -- and will only improve that number by one this year. The whiff of potential for Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd are better than last year's keeper gems of James Starks and Montario Hardesty. And I guess replacing Pierre Thomas with 49ers defense is an upgrade. Wait, no, we can't award any keeper medals for a defense. That's just against everything we stand for. P Funk No-Stars, is anyone home?

Voltron
Ann Arbor Bamfers +2(12): Eli Manning (2) Colin Kaepernick (2) CJ Spiller (3) Frank Gore (2) Fred Jackson (1) James Jones (2)
Hungry Hungry Ouroboros +2(12): Matt Ryan (3) Darren Sproles (2) Victor Cruz (3) Mike Wallace (1) Eric Decker (2) Antonio Gates (1)
MoRRie's Pogiboys +1(10): Trent Richardson (3) Rashard Mendenhall (1) Calvin Johnson (3) Danny Amendola (2) Vincent Brown (1) Michael Crabtree (0)
Team Cameltoe +1(10): Russell Wilson (2) David Wilson (2) Daryl Richardson (1) Chris Ivory (1) Julio Jones (3) Jordy Nelson (1)

It's always nice when a long held asset turns into a bonafide star. Ann Arbor Bamfers drafted C.J. Spiller #5 overall in 2010 and held onto him for what seems like forever before he finally broke out last season. Spiller went from bronze to gold and just like that, Randy has a franchise runner. This does mean that Fred Jackson is heavily downgraded however, although I'm sure Bamfers doesn't mind. Having James Jones replace Doug Baldwin is a huge upgrade too, and Peyton Hillis, former coveted trade acquisition, is now a long lost memory. We're a little curious if Bamfers needed both Eli Manning and Colin Kaepernick, since maybe BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Golden Tate, or Anquan Boldin could have been low end keeper options. But who are we to argue with the best team keeper core in the division?

The only team to bring back all six keepers from a season ago, Hungry Hungry Ouroboros seems stuck on cruise control after a major shakeup last off-season -- not to mention finally getting into Maize and Blue. There was a slight shift in grades for the receiving crops of Victor Cruz, Mike Wallace, Eric Decker, and musty Antonio Gates, but otherwise it's Matt Ryan elevating himself to quarterback franchise status that gives Jon's team a slight improvement.

Coming off a division championship, Pogiboys were poised to lock in their position at the top for awhile, after a hit of the reset button. The additions of last year's #1 overall pick Trent Richardson and the emergence of Michael Crabtree should have vaulted Alvin's keeper core to another level. Instead, they were hit hard by the off-season as two top tight ends, Aaron Hernandez and Dennis Pitta, were wiped from his roster, and now Crabtree is facing a long rest on injured reserve. There are high hopes for new keepers Danny Amendola and Vincent Brown -- upgrades on Beanie Wells, Greg Little, and oft-injured Mikel Leshoure -- but there's some holes to fill here. Luckily Alvin has four first round picks this year...

We love team rebuilds and it doesn't get more exciting than the one Felipe undertook over the past off-season. Keeping only Julio Jones from the year before, Cameltoe will now feature Russell Wilson at the helm, along with the three headed maybe ground attack of David Wilson, Daryl Richardson, and Chris Ivory. New acquisition Jordy Nelson could have a bounce back year, even if he's been deflated a bit by a pre-season injury. While nothing is for certain, this crew definitely sounds more appealing than the five players who were on the keeper list a year ago: Jay Cutler, Shonn Greene, Roy Helu, Jeremy Maclin, and Jacob Tamme. Here's hoping the football gods reward gumption and fun trades karma!

Top Five Keeper Cores
  1. Mandalorian Warriors (17): Last year's top keeper core upgraded. Watch out!
  2. 100 Acre Pooh Bears (17): Great last year and even better this year. What happened to parity?
  3. Italian Stallionz (15): Middle of the pack last year but vaulted up into the top three now.
  4. Jedi Knights (14): One of the lower tier teams last season suddenly has a roster worth envying.
  5. DM Paper Company and Another Bad Creation (13): Neither team gained from last season, but that's enough to keep them in the top ranks.

Friday, August 9, 2013

2013 Keepers

Offseason Moves

Trade ID: #167
  • Pogiboys receive Cameltoe 2013 RD1 (1.4), rights to Pogiboys 2013 RD4
  • Mandalorian Warriors receive Pogiboys 2013 RD2 (2.11), 2013 RD2, 2015 RD1
Trade ID: #168
  • Human Amoebas receive WR Demaryius Thomas, Italian Stallionz 2013 RD1, 2014 RD3
  • Italian Stallionz receive QB Matthew Stafford
Trade ID: #169
  • Jedi Knights receive WR Steve Smith and TE Jason Witten
  • Detroit Players receive Jedi Knights 2014 RD4, 2015 RD1
A few pre-draft trades worth taking a look at. First up, a total doozy as Alvin makes a huge play for this year's draft. After picking number one overall last season -- nabbing Trent Richardson -- Alvin was already set for a big 2013 draft with three first round picks. His own and two others acquired last August for Frank Gore and Larry Fitzgerald (Trade ID#157 and 158). Post-draft lottery, Pogiboys moved to secure the rights to Cameltoe's 2013 RD1, which was under the control of Mandalorian Warriors from their recent deal. The trade gives Alvin a whopping four first round picks this year, as he'll pick third, fourth, ninth, and eleventh. The entire Pogiboy fan base is excited about what this infusion of new talent could do for the team. As for the defending champs, why give up an early first round pick? Could it be that they don't believe much in any of the top rookies? Interesting...

A cautionary note for Pogiboys:
  • In 2010 Ann Arbor Bamfers had four selections -- #3, 4, 13, 15 -- and came away with C.J. Spiller, Ben Tate, Golden Tate, and Braylon Edwards.
  • In 2011 Detroit Players had three of the first four overall draft picks. They selected Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams, and Daniel Thomas. The #2 pick that year, Julio Jones, was the only one that panned out. Jones was selected by Team Cameltoe.
  • In that same draft, P Funk All-Stars had three first round picks also, which were used on A.J. Green, Knowshon Moreno, and Owen Daniels.

Installed as the new head of decision making, Hong had his first major move to orchestrate. With two up-and-coming quarterbacks on the roster, he had to figure out if he wanted to hitch his star to Matthew Stafford or Andrew Luck. Ultimately he went with Luck and while under a mandate to find a franchise running back, he chose to usurp Eric's authority and move for Demaryius Thomas and draft picks instead. Thomas had a breakout season with Peyton Manning at the helm, catching 90+ balls for over 1,400 yards and ten touchdowns. He'll remain a top receiver as long as Manning is playing, and probably beyond that. If fellow Georgia Tech alum Calvin Johnson is Megatron, then the similarly physically gifted Thomas could become Optimus Prime.

As for Stafford, he threw for an astonishing almost 5,000 yards last season, even at the cost of 17 interceptions to 20 touchdowns. Surprisingly, Stafford is only twenty five years old and could still improve. While it was rumored that Stafford was headed to other destinations, it was the Italian Stallionz who charged in with the best offer. We're not sure why Porta needs Stafford and Tom Brady, but perhaps another trade is soon on the way.

In late-breaking news, Jedi Knights swooped in to shore up their keeper roster by moving a few picks for Jason Witten and Steve Smith. Great move! Is anybody else feeling like all of Lum's moves are turning up daisies recently? We should probably rename him King Midas if he keeps this up. Smith's numbers dipped from his resurgent 2012 season but he still caught 70+ passes for 1,170 yards and 4 TDs. That's pretty decent for an old guy. The real get is Jason Witten, who caught 110 balls last year, and while he only scored three touchdowns, a tight end who has gone over 80 receptions in five of his last six seasons is invaluable. This is the kind of pre-draft trade we love to see, as Ariel had extra assets and Lum had room to upgrade his roster. Lovely!