Saturday, December 27, 2014

Super Bowl X


It’s hard to tell if there’s been a bigger upset post-season than the one Original Salt just pulled off. This owner hasn’t been around long enough to see other shocking playoff runs, but from what I can tell, after a run of Super Bowl upsets in 2004-2006, it’s been smooth sailing for the Maize and Blue favorites until last year’s 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears victory, and now Original Salt’s title. But Pooh Bears were barely underdogs last season, as they were a 9-4 team facing off against a 10-3 Pogiboys squad.
  • Original Salt (6-7) vs * Fockers (10-3), 74 - 50
Reno’s team was 6-7 this year — after posting back-to-back 4-9 seasons — and they snuck into the playoffs and then destroyed the #1 and #2 seeds. Well, maybe “destroy” is too strong a word, but there’s no question that Reno’s team took down the only two teams that hit double digit regular season wins this season. Their first round upset of regular season champ Jedi Knights was a shock. Their second round win versus Cameltoe set the stage for an epic upset. And then during the Super Bowl, the ultimate sign that Original Salt was this year’s team of destiny appeared: Andrew Luck, the number one ranked fantasy player, took a bagel in his Super Bowl appearance. Yes, a big fat zero!

It must have been infuriating for Fockers’ owner Hong to watch Luck get pulled during the Colts’ blowout at the hands of the Cowboys. After a Saturday game that saw TE Antonio Gates leap out to 21 points, it looked like Fockers would waltz to a championship. That’s how the storyline should’ve played out, Goliath wallops David.

Instead, all of the things that we pointed out in last week’s Super Bowl preview didn’t happen. Original Salt’s stand-in tight end Jordan Cameron caught a TD and put up 14 points after scoring 8 points combined in his previous nine games. Kicker Josh Brown punched in 15 nasty points, punching Fockers where it hurt, as their kicker, Billy Cundiff, rode the injury pine.

And then there was the defensive collapse by Fockers’ Rams, who gave up -5 points on the week, further adding insult to injury. Between Luck’s no show, a negative defense, and no kicker, it was uphill all the way for the Super Bowl favorites. When Le’Veon Bell and Demaryius Thomas failed to come up big, Original Salt had their title in hand, powered along by Matt Forte’s 15 points, Jordan Cameron, and Josh Brown. Unexpected heroes, just like Original Salt’s entire season.

Usually in this space, we talk about the wonderful stats that the Super Bowl winner put up. But Original Salt only scored 67.5 ppg for the regular season, outscoring only three other teams. They were 3-5 at home, 1-5 in their division, and entered the post-season on a five game losing streak. In fact, after starting off the season 5-1, they stumbled 1-6 the rest of the way. They had one player ranked in the top five at their position, Matt Forte, and one player, Ben Roethlisberger ranked just outside the top five — but Roethlisberger split much of his time with Jay Cutler. The other top scorers for this team? Roddy White, Terrance Williams, and Doug Baldwin. So this really was a miracle playoffs for them!

Instead of looking at the series of occurrences that had to happen for Reno to win the championship, it's better to see this post-season run as an inspiration tale. A with average keepers, a recent history of losing, and tailspinning at the end of the season rode fairy dust and wishes toward a championship. With a little bit of luck, and no Luck, Original Salt will lord it over Maize and Blue for a full year, knowing that they gave the league one of the most unexpected title runs ever. Congrats Original Salt!

As for Fockers, this was a gut punch of an ending to what could have been. They had the path to a title cleared out for them, but eventually fell to the same team that eliminated all of their main competitors. Fockers still have Luck, Bell, and Thomas to push forward with, but this loss will hang heavy in their hearts as the missed opportunity for a title clouds their off-season. Still, Fockers are too talented to not return to contention, and this was a breakout year for them after a recent transferral of management power. Better Luck next year!

Monday, December 15, 2014

Super Bowl Preview

Fockers (10-3) vs Original Salt (6-7)
Alright! Another upset by Reno’s team as Original Salt upended fellow upsetter Team Cameltoe, 65 - 47, on the way toward their first Super Bowl since an appearance in 2008. It’s been a difficult past couple of years for Original Salt (formerly known as Rhythm Drive), but if they can pull of another upset, they’ll have one of the greatest underdog playoff runs in Maize and Blue history.

As for Fockers, they’ve been the model of going from pretender to contender since Hong took over the reins in 2012. They’ve made all the right moves, including trading for Demaryius Thomas, drafting Le’Veon Bell, keeping Andrew Luck over Matthew Stafford, and even scooping up favorite Charger, Antonio Gates in another low key trade. We can even overlook their recent curious trade of a 2018 RD1 for Chris Ivory. (“It was a mistake, I didn’t see that a pick was involved...” GM Hong said when reached for comment.) After neatly dispatching Shoguns of Harlem in the conference finals, 80-71, a championship is in sight, as Original Salt has taken care of all of *Fockers main rivals.

Fockers averaged 87.9 points per game this regular season, leading the league and hitting the magical DeLorean number. Original Salt averaged 67.5 ppg and snuck into the playoffs with a losing record. Still, throw everything out the window because Reno’s team could be destined for victory! Let’s look at next week’s matchup...

QB: Andrew Luck versus Ben Roethlisberger. There’s a chance Jay Cutler could sneak a start here, but we’re assuming it’s Big Ben who will take charge for Original Salt, because who wants their title hopes on the line with Cutler leading the way? Roethlisberger is having a career year, and threw those two games of six TDs each, but he’s not the #1 overall ranked player like Luck is. Comparison over. EDGE: Fockers

RB: We love Matt Forte, who is consistently underrated. His stats will rise even more when next year’s half point PPR kicks in, but Forte was already the #5 RB this season. He’s been a little erratic lately, but he should show up in the biggest game of his life. Fockers will counter with Le’Veon Bell, who has emerged in his second season as the best back in the NFL. His last four games have resulted in 27, 30, 41, and 23 points. So yeah, we’ll give the edge to Bell. EDGE: Fockers

WR: Outside of a WK14 blip, Demaryius Thomas has put up double digits every week since WK5. He’s #3 on the WR charts and won’t be slowing down any time soon. Thomas is a monster. Across from him will be Salt’s Roddy White, who has had a nice bounceback season, but White isn’t in his prime anymore, and he’s only capable of low double digits. Neither team has a solid number two receiver, unless you think Anquan Boldin or Doug Baldwin are worth talking about. So yeah, it’s basically the top options we’re looking at here. EDGE: Fockers

TE: Original Salt’s best tight end, Jermaine Gresham, is sitting the bench due to injury, and his replacement, Jordan Cameron, has scored eight points total since WK7 with seven scoreless games since. That’s not good. Especially when Fockers get to suit up Antonio Gates, who is still a top five option, depsite a string of weak games recently. Still, Gates will likely get more than zero points, which means Reno will be essentially playing seven on eight for the title game. EDGE: Fockers

DEF/K: Yes, we’re comparing defenses. I mean, Salt’s Ravens defense has put up 11, 2, 10, and 21 points over the past month, so they could be more important than almost any non-QB/RB for Reno’s team. They’ll be playing a putrid Texans team next week, so that could be a fantasy bonanza. Fockers have a stiff defense of their own though, the Rams, who have scored three TDs in four weeks, and get to go against the turnover prone Giants in WK16. Pretty even. Buuut, Fockers have lost their kicker, Billy Cundiff for the season, and so they’ll be playing one man down — neatly making up for Jordan Cameron. Robbie Gould has been hurt for Original Salt, but Reno had the foresight to pack Josh Brown as a backup kicker before the post-season roster lock. EDGE: Original Salt

Prediction: While we love upsets, it’s hard to call this for anyone but Fockers. We predict a twenty point blowout, with Reno having a ten percent chance of a crazy upset. Can this long shot take out Hong, the king of gambling? Do you believe in Luck or luck?!

Monday, December 8, 2014

Playoffs: RD1 Recap

Eastern Conference
#4 Original Salt (6-7) vs #1 Jedi Knights (12-1), 95 - 67
Reno’s team hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2008 but they came in and pulled off a huge upset over the regular season wins leader. Jedi Knights only lost one game all season after coming out of the gates 9-0, while Original Salt came into the post-season on a five game losing streak. BUT THAT’S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAME! To add injury to insult, Knights beat Salt just a week ago in the regular season finale...

#2 Team Cameltoe (6-7) vs #3 Another Bad Creation (8-5) , 137 - 78
Despite earning the higher seed for winning Hoke-A-Mania division, Team Cameltoe entered the matchup as underdogs. Well, Russell Wilson, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Andre Williams defended the honor of the division by helping Felipe handily dispatch Oliver’s ABC team. ABC limps out of the post-season after making the Super Bowl two years ago.

 Western Conference
#1 Fockers (10-3) vs #4 Sweep the Leg Zabka (8-5), 110 - 89
The Western Conference number one seed took care of business behind Le'Veon Bell’s 41 points, not to mention 27 points from Rams defense. New owner Alan had a fantastic first season but he’ll have to bow out after a thrilling run that saw him infuse his team with enthusiasm and talent.

#2 Shoguns of Harlem (8-4-1) vs #3 Italian Stallionz (8-5), 90-78
Not much separated these teams during the regular season — very similar PF and PA — but Shoguns got just enough from Tony Romo, Arian Foster, and Alshon Jeffery to fend off Italian Stallionz, as Porta’s passing attack sputtered.

Monday, December 1, 2014

2014 Final Power Rankings

Playoff Teams
  1. Jedi Knights (12-1) - The Knights who Say Ni Division Champions. Best Overall Record 
  2. Fockers (10-3) - The Wood Division Champions. Next best overall record. 
  3. Shoguns of Harlem (8-4-1) - Lebowski Achievers Division Champions. Next best overall record . 
  4. Italian Stallionz (8-5) - Wins tiebreak vs ABC and Zabka via H2H % among tied teams (1.00 v .5 v 0.0) 
  5. Sweep the Leg Zabka (8-5) - Wins tiebreak vs ABC via H2H. 
  6. Another Bad Creation (8-5) - Next best overall record. 
  7. Original Salt (6-7) - Wins tiebreak vs Cameltoe via H2H. 
  8. Team Cameltoe (6-7) - Hoke-a-Mania Division Champions. Next best overall record. 
Non-Playoff Teams
  1. Detroit Players (6-5-2) - Wins tiebreak vs Pooh Bears via H2H 
  2. 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears (7-6) - Next best overall record 
  3. MoRRie’s Pogiboys (5-7-1) - Next best overall record 
  4. Mandalorian Warriors (5-8) - Next best overall record 
  5. Squirtle Squad (4-9) - Wins tiebreak vs Ouroboros via Total Points Scored 
  6. Hungry Hungry Ouroboros (4-9) - Next best overall record 
  7. Ann Arbor Bamfers (3-10) - Next best overall record 
  8. P Funk All Stars (2-11) - Next best overall record 

Sunday, November 30, 2014

Saturday, October 4, 2014

West Conf Early Look: Hoke-A-Mania

It’s been a bad first month of the season for division namesake Brady Hoke, and the same with this division. The highest scoring team in the division — Team Cameltoe -- is ranked only 10th in PF. Yes, welcome to Maize and Blue’s weakest division, again. [2013 Early Season Look]

Hungry Hungry Ouroboros (2-2)
After vaulting out of the gate with two strong wins, Ouroboros has collapsed in recent weeks as their team has fallen apart. Many would blame the bad karma from the Ray Rice trade, and it would be hard to disagree. The fantasy football gods don’t look kindly on teams that harbor villains. The recent season ending injury to Dennis Pitta also left a gaping hole at tight end, exposing yet another leak for this team to plug.

The good news is that sophomore RB Giovani Bernard as emerged as a top option, with 16.0 ppg in his three appearances. Matt Ryan has also found another gear, throwing three TDs in three separate games so far. Aside from those two however, the rest of the roster has been mostly so-so. Victor Cruz has redeemed himself after a slow start but Eric Decker has regressed as expected. Free agent pickup Ahmad Bradshaw has produced some nice games upon signing, which has eased the pain of 2014 first rounder Toby Gerhart’s pathetic start to the season. Darren Sproles has been electric in real life, but a non-factor as a fantasy player. Young RBs Jerick McKinnon and Alfred Blue could both move ahead of him on the depth chart soon. With bad karma still coming in every which way, it’ll be a tough fight for Jon to remain at the top of this division.

Team Cameltoe (1-3)
Last year’s expensive rebuild resulted in a 2-11 season, and Cameltoe’s number one overall pick being gifted to 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears. How goes year two? Well, it’s hard to say. After stumbling out of the gate 0-2 in low scoring losses, Cameltoe has looked more respectable of late. Led by the high flying duo of Jordy Nelson and Julio Jones, Cameltoe could climb up the ranks to respectability quickly in this weak division.

Russell Wilson is the only QB to not be a top scorer for his team, but that’s mainly because he’s only played three games. Seattle’s offense has looked very impressive this season and after Wilson’s WK4 bye, he’ll now be around to lead this team the rest of the way. That’s good because recent trade acquisition EJ Manuel just got booted to the curb by the Bills. We’re a little puzzled by the Isaiah Crowell for Jordan Matthews trade, as Cameltoe is clearly stronger at WR than RB. Knile Davis is returning to a backup role and it had looked like Crowell was only gaining steam. Yes, Doug Martin is back from injury, and free agent steal Lorezno Taliaferro is on-board, but Matthews didn’t seem to have the upside of Crowell. We would have liked to see a spare RB traded for a TE, since Felipe has rotated through three of them already this season.

MoRRie’s Pogiboys (1-3)
Alvin’s team has faced three teams that have hit the DeLorean mark already this season, resulting in all three of their losses. Their lone win was a 61-46 affair in WK3 against Ann Arbor Bamfers. For a team that had hopes of returning to another Super Bowl, the road will obviously be much tougher this time around.

Calvin Johnson is leading the team in points, but he’s been hobbled since WK2. And Fat Eddie Lacy is starting to make Pogiboys fans wonder if his rookie season was the height of career. And oh yeah, Tom Brady is averaging 8.8 points a game, down on the charts with the likes of Jake Locker and Drew Stanton. To add insult to emotional injury: Tom Terrible has been replaced in the lineup by rookie Blake Bortles just a month into the season. Hey, at least TE Travis Kelce seems to be getting better with each game! As is rookie running back Khiry Robinson. Veterans Michael Crabtree and Percy Harvin have been more than erratic however. GM Alvin has been streaming defenses this season, but as their PA and three losses can attest, they’ve stopped nobody this season. Except, so far, themselves.

Ann Arbor Bamfers (1-3)
In a strange quirk, Bamfers is the only team in the division with a positive PF/PA split. In fact, they are scoring 7.8 points more than their opponent this season, yet they’ve only picked up one win — a WK4 victory over 0-4 P Funk All Stars. Randy’s team hasn’t seen a winning season since 2005 — despite making the playoffs last year — and they’re going to need to come together quickly to end that streak now.

It seems like Bamfers have two pretty useable QBs in Colin Kaepernick and Nick Foles. Neither have been spectacular but both are solidly starter worthy. Perhaps one could be shipped off for a much needed receiver? The passing game could use a strong WR#1 alongside James Jones, Golden Tate, and Kendall Wright. The WK4 insertion of TE Delanie Walker for an inept Heath Miller was at least a week late. Frank Gore is still getting lots of carries, but the Buffalo timeshare of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson continue to hurt both running backs. All in all, Bamfers aren’t in any worse shape than any of the other teams in this division, and with a few tweaks, they could potentially challenge for that elusive winning season.

Friday, October 3, 2014

East Conf Early Look: The Wood

This division is slipping. Last year at this time The Wood had three 3-1 teams, and now they boast only two. Of course, there's no losing records among the four teams so maybe it's just as strong. Make no mistake, The Wood is dark and full of terrors, and all four teams could be championship contenders. [2013 Early Season Look.]

*Fockers (3-1)
Fock me? Fock you! Despite playing a tough opening schedule, Hong’s team has glided to the top of the toughest division in the land. Fockers barely missed the playoffs last year, despite a winning record, and now they’re angry! Having the best player in fantasy football helps, as Andrew Luck and his 25.8 points per game are smashing everyone else in the league so far.

Last year’s number one overall pick, Le’Veon Bell, has lost weight and is now breaking off explosive runs. And hey, off-season acquisition Antonio Gates had three TDs in WK2! And there’s more upside to be had here, as starting receivers Demaryius Thomas and Pierre Garcon have yet to hit their stride. Montee Ball seems to be an absolute disappointment though, and this year’s first rounder, Bishop Sankey, could soon overtake him in the starting lineup. In fact, the only weakness we can see is the same hole as last year: tight end. Gates had that one spectacular game but he’s been quiet since. (Sleeper TE Ladarius Green is still deep in slumber apparently.) Regardless, with the magical Luck at the helm, Fockers are certain to continue their winning ways. Dracarys!

100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears (3-1)
How fare our defending champions? After winning the throne, winning the lottery, and cashing in on a flurry of extra early rounders, Pooh Bears should be nigh invincible right? Well, new owner (and younger brother) Alan took the shine off the crown by pounding J&J by thirty points in WK1. Since then, Pooh Bears have bounced back handily, but with wins against three opponents who all scored sub-60 points. The rest of their schedule stacks out to much tougher, as they only face one sub-0.500 team the rest of the way.

Antonio Brown has asserted himself as the most exciting receiver in the league, with highlight reel catches, 18.3 ppg, and a lofty #10 overall fantasy showing. Brown, Jimmy Graham, and Dez Bryant have been working opponents over. The receivers on this team are ridiculous, and that’s not even accounting for (hopefully not) one-shot wonder Cordarrelle Patterson, partially resuscitated Reggie Wayne, and 2014’s RD1.1 pick, Brandin Cooks. Oh right, and fellow rookie Mike Evans, who wasn’t looking too bad either until a groin injury shelved him. Last year’s championship run relied heavily on Shane Vereen, but now he’s fallen off a cliff and there’s only Pierre Thomas and rookie backup Carlos Hyde behind him. The thing is, who’s leading this team at quarterback? The no brainer answer is Cam Newton, but Killer Cam has been getting worse each week and if rookie Teddy Bridgewater were healthy, there’s a great chance he would have been inserted into the lineup already. Oh yeah, and there’s Johnny Manziel lurking, lurking, behind them both. Pooh Bears face off against Fockers in WK5 for a huge game!

Italian Stallionz (2-2)
After suffering the indignity of being the only team in The Wood not to have a winning record last year, Stallionz put their stamp on the young season by putting up a season high 109 points last week — including a negative seven showing by Falcons defense while Eagles' +24 points rode the bench. So far it seems like Porta’s squad is boom or bust, riding the wave of Matthew Stafford’s big weeks. However, Jamaal Charles is back in the saddle and he should provide another dose of explosiveness.

The receiving corps is definitely contributing, as DeAndre Hopkins has matured quickly in his second year and pre-draft trade acquisition Mike Wallace has somehow found consistency week to week. And what about TE Larry Donnell, who has been starting since early WK2 for the prescient Porta. Exciting running back Andre Ellington has received a major uptick in carries but he hasn’t reached the end zone yet, and he could be spelled by Justin Forsett if he can’t start consistently getting into double digits. Stevan Ridley has seemed to disappear from the Patriots game plan recently. No matter, with Charles back in charge, the running game is strong again, and we're ready to see if this team is the Stallionz Who Mountz the World!

Squirtle Squad (2-2)
What do you call a team that has both Adrian Peterson and Josh Gordon on the roster?...Give up? Answer: Ray Rice’s next team! Okay, not funny. Squirtles responded to all the Peterson and Gordon adversity by slapping up 106 points last week, in defiance of The Old Gods and the New. Remember how we said Pooh Bears had a tough road ahead of them? Well, Brian's team won’t face any sub-0.500 teams the rest of the way. He's taking the High Road to The Eyrie apparently.

With two of their best players facing lengthy suspensions, it makes sense that this team’s depth has been tested. (A recent trade of Jordan Matthews for promising Isaiah Crowell doesn’t quite move the needle.) Sophomores Zac Stacy and Keenan Allen have both had their struggles this year, even though Allen just had a great WK4. Randall Cobb has been spectacular receiving passes from NFL MVP candidate Philip Rivers, who’s averaging 20.3 ppg, just a notch behind Luck and Manning. Julius Thomas could easily remain the top TE for the year, and yes, in a historic first, Squirtles will roll out a double-TE formation in WK5. Our off-season rule change will hit the field in the form of Heath Miller at the flex position. Just for that, we hope Squirtles go undefeated the rest of the way.

Thursday, October 2, 2014

West Conf Early Look: The Knights Who Say Ni

No surprise at the top for The Knights Who Say Ni. Just look at the division name: "Knights." It's a tight race though, as three of the four teams have three wins or more! [2013 early season preview.]

Jedi Knights (4-0)
We’ve often spoken of Jedi’s resurgence — or just “surgence” with no “re-“ — and lauded them for climbing out of the gutter into the spotlight. Well, now they are the top team in M&B, with an unblemished first month of the season. Sure, they’ve beat up on some bad teams, but what potential champion hasn’t? After two straight division titles, Jedi already have a leg up for their third.

Of course, they’ve done it by leaning on Peyton Manning again, who has thrown for 20+ points in all three of his appearances. The nice surprise has been the solid RB duo of Alfred Morris and Lamar Miller. They’ve given Jedi a ground game to complement the dangerous passing game. Emmanuel Sanders has racked up a ton of catches and yards in his new role, while T.Y. Hilton has steadied himself at the other receiver position. Interestingly, neither of them have scored a TD yet this season. In fact, only Marques Colston has a TD for this receiving corps, which includes TE Jason Witten. The biggest sign that Chris is taking this season as his championship push? Trading away a future pick for one week of QB Mike Glennon, a ballsy move that rewarded Jedi with 18 points during a WK4 victory. We love everything this team is doing. It’s the (Re-)turn of the Jedi!

Another Bad Creation (3-1)
We gave ABC the best keeper core scores in the division but maybe we were overrating some of the talent here. A healthy Aaron Rodgers is a superstar, and Marshawn Lynch is running for a contract, but the two-headed Lion attack of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell have mostly flamed out. Andre Johnson and Vincent Jackson have yet to break double digits in four games, and Oliver has had to scramble to keep his team on a winning track. ABC haven’t been to the playoffs in two years and they’re hungry for more than Skittles.

You know who else is hungry? Steve Smith Sr., who is hungry for revenge! While Smith didn’t hit ABC’s lineup until WK4, Smith’s three 100+ yard games so far this season could mean that he’s now here to stay. His 25 point outburst last week shot him to #3 scorer on this roster. With last week’s pickup of free agent Eddie Royal, the receiving corps got a boost as they wait for Johnson and Jackson to join the party. It looks like Oliver is moving to the run-and-shoot, and with a big matchup this week against Jedi Knights, ABC could look to make a major statement about their championship aspirations this year.

Original Salt (3-1)
For the past two years, Reno’s squad had only four wins all season! Assuming they win at least one more game, Original Salt fans can already declare this year a success. (Of course, Original Salt started off 2013 2-2 before collapsing, but we’d like to stay optimistic here.) Their only loss so far has been WK3, against division foe Another Bad Creation. Overall, this team won’t likely be a mirage because their PF/PA numbers are very solid and sustainable.

Powered by the Berenstain Bears set of Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, Original Salt has been using a pass oriented attack to ride to victory. Cutler has actually been performing as a top five fantasy QB option. He’s throwing to Roddy White and Terrance Williams, who have taken turns with big games. Unfortunately, TE Jordan Cameron’s huge start to 2013 was a definite aberration and there’s a chance free agent pickup Levine Toilolo could unseat him. And please, release Danny Amendola and put him out of his misery. There’s a chance Bernard Pierce could return from injury to solidify the other RB position, but for now it’s Darren McFadden and a touch of Steven Jackson holding that slot down. It’ll be a tough battle for Reno this season to move up in the division, but they should savor the 3-1 record because they’ve earned it.

P Funk All Stars (0-4)
The surprise team of last season almost took a division crown off Jedi Knights, tying for the wins lead with an 8-4 record and hitting the playoffs for the first time since 2006. We wondered if they could retain their excellent or regress to their previous losing state. Well, unfortunately, the latter has happened. Paolo’s team is putting up the lowest PF in the league, even as they are being pounded by one of the worst PAs around. It’s hard to win games when you average 54.5 ppg and your opponents put up 79.8 per outing. But we are not here to bury, but to provide hope. The good news is…well, okay. There’s not a lot of good news.

Joe Flacco is leading this team in scoring despite only starting two games. Ryan Fitzpatrick got the call the first two weeks of the season, before getting subbed out. Together they haven’t been half bad — a combined output that puts them on the Alex Smith and Nick Foles level — but maybe clear leadership is needed to turn this boat around. Off-season trade acquisition DeSean Jackson hasn’t been quite as explosive as advertised, and Rayn Mathews looks like he’s headed for an injured plagued season. Last season’s hero, Michael Floyd has stamped himself as the top WR in Arizona with two 100+ yard games, but he’s yet to score a touchdown. Terrance West, one of three first round picks by P Funk this season, has proven serviceable so far, but his carries have been in slow decline. And let’s just go ahead and cut the cord on Tavon Austin, as the Rams have no idea how to use him effectively. Paolo’s team needs to regroup and try to pull a respectable season together, even if they are likely already out of post-season contention.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

East Conf Early Look: Lebowski Achievers

Shockingly, it's already four weeks into the season. Where did the time fly? I'm still waiting for my team to round into shape! Last year we did some early season reviews right around this time and so let's take a look again! [Early season Lebowski review last season.]

Sweep the Leg Zabka (2-2)
How’s this for the start to a new reign? Alan’s first month in Maize & Blue sees him sitting atop his division, as well as owning the highest PF in the league. Their debut week saw them roll over the defending champs, 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears, in a 95-65 shellacking. Overall, they’ve had two DeLoreans, and almost one more. In addition, they’ve already injected some life into the league by getting involved in THREE trades since the draft, moving Delanie Walker, EJ Manuel, and Mike Glennon for future picks.

And guess who’s been their MVP so far? Giants running back Rashad Jennings, who has been playing as a top five RB, with 12.8 points per game. And how about rookie Kelvin Benjamin, who has exploded onto the scene with 12.3 ppg — he’s outplayed fellow rookie Sammy Watkins by a big margin so far. TE Rob Gronkowski has been a little erratic but he still has three TDs on the season. And then there’s waiver wire pickup Matt Asiata, who scored three TDs last week alone, and he could be the perfect fill in for a still injured Knowshon Moreno. Andy Dalton and Eli Manning could be in for a QB battle, as Manning put up 32 points last week while Dalton was on bye. Overall, Alan is scoring big without a lot of traditional stars, and he’s moving his extra depth to boot. What a start to the season!

Shoguns of Harlem (2-2)
It’s hard to say if Mike’s constant rebranding helps his team or not, but so far the newly dubbed Shoguns are outpacing their 1-3 start from 2013. Despite being riddled with injuries, this team has managed to win on the strength of two 86 point games in WK1 and WK4. The toughest stretch of their schedule seems to be over too, so it could be smoother sailing from here on out. If this team can stay healthy.

Currently, out of eleven players who have seen the field for Shoguns, fully eight of them have a glaring red “P" or “Q” next to their names. Top running back Arian Foster is working his way back from injury — handcuff Ben Tate too — so it’s been up to Tony Romo and Jeremy Maclin to lead the attack. Alshon Jeffery seems to be heating back up, but it looks like TE Vernon Davis coud be dinged up. There’s no second running back on this team, as Chris Johnson is proving that his star days are waaaay over. Receiver Andrew Hawkins has been a steady if unspectacular flex option, as this team looks to run-and-shoot its way to stay competitive.

Detroit Players (2-2)
It’s hard to more snakebitten than Detroit Players so far this season. Mark Ingram flashed two weeks of incredible numbers before breaking a hand. A.J. Green missed WK2 after getting knocked out early. Starting TE Kyle Rudolph is also out. And then there’s Robert Griffin III, who wasn’t exactly setting the NFL on fire anyway when he was healthy. At least Players moved fast to acquire Kirk Cousins in a trade, riding him to a WK3 win over the Warriors, before having Cousins’ four INTs sink them to 0.500 in WK4.

So how is this team winning? Welcome to the DeMarco Murray Experience! Mr. Murray is currently the top ranked RB, on pace to break 2,000+ yards, and is in the top five for all fantasy scorers so far this season. It’s Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and then Murray. He's scored 17, 20, 17, and 26 points so far, with touchdowns in each game. With that kind of running game, Ariel has been able to work around the rest of his frail lineup, while finding useful pieces like rookie Jeremy Hill to fill in the gaps. If Ingram returns soon and Cousins stabilizes, Players could be headed to another post-season appearance. All hail DeMarco!

Mandalorian Warriors (1-3)
How quickly the mighty fall. Despite looking like a potential dynasty just two years ago, Matt’s team suddenly find themselves below 0.500 for the first time in forever, and it’s not unwarranted, as they’ve been the fourth lowest scoring team in M&B so far. After sneaking out a 76-71 WK1 win, Warriors have lost three in a row, with declining PF each time. Yes, they’ve faced four teams with a combined record of 11-5, but the Warriors we know and feared never needed excuses.

Despite a roster replete with stars, the second highest contributor so far this season has been TE Greg Olsen. You know, All-Pro Greg Olsen? No, not ringing a bell? Sure, Drew Brees is still slinging it, but he’s not on fire...yet. The biggest problem in the lineup right now is running back, where LeSean McCoy has been ineffective, and the fantasy world is off-kilter when Chris Ivory has been the steadier scorer of the two. McCoy is still a top option but two weeks with three points total is not going to help pull Warriors out of this tailspin. Larry Fitzgerald’s time as a WR#1 is clearly over, and he hasn’t even broken five points a game this season. Brandon Marshall had a huge WK2 but has been quiet since. Thank goodness for Julian Edelman, sort of. After a fast start, Edelman’s been in decline recently, as the Patriots offense sputters week by week. It’s way too early to hit the panic bell, but Matt has to be worried about losing his iron grip on the Lebowski Achievers this season. Especially to an upstart owner trying to go from worst to first!

Saturday, September 6, 2014

Draft Review 2014

Let's go, it's football time! A brief look at our recent draft. Last year's version here.

ROUND ONE
The last two years featured rookie running backs plucked at #1 — Trent Richardson and Le’Veon Bell — but this time it was rookie receiver Brandin Cooks who went number one overall to defending champ 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears. Right after Cooks was another rookie WR, Buffalo’s Sammy Watkins, who went to the new ownership group behind Sweep the Leg Zabka. (Not having an owner on auto-draft sure is an upgrade in competitiveness already! Recall Tartars’ horrific auto-drafting last season...) In fact, it wasn’t until pick 1.6 that a rookie RB was drafted, Carlos Hyde followed immediately by Bishop Sankey.

Fockers had two first rounders and he went for pure upside with Sankey and Ladarius Green, Antonio Gates’ successor at tight end. CBS’s auto-generated draft recap gave Fockers the best draft review: "True football glory is months away, but Fockers have given themselves the best chance of achieving it, winding up with the top ranked draft.” Wow, can a computer be right? Are Hong and Eric’s team really the best? The CBS projected worst team in the league, P Funk All Stars, had three first rounders, and Paolo went for home run picks also, with Eric Ebron (1.11), rookie Terrance West (1.14), and Christine Michael (1.16). Here’s hoping all three work out, as P Funk needs a talent infusion immediately.

There’s a chance that Toby Gerhart (1.5) could be the steal of the draft, as he has a starting gig in Jacksonville. Of course, he was an auto-pick, just like Jay Cutler up at 1.3 by Original Salt. That could work out well, as Reno’s team is looking for a starting QB after letting Philip Rivers walk in the off-season. A move we lauded in the keeper preview.  Rivers will be taking his resurgent career to Squirtle Squad this season. Brian’s team ended last season with Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler on his roster, so basically Reno and Brian are just swapping starting signal callers this season.

Shoguns of Harlem took Jeremy Maclin very high at 1.4, bypassing all the young talent this year for Philadelphia’s new number one option. Two more young-ish receiving vets went in the first round: Golden Tate (Ann 1.9) and T.Y. Hilton (Jedi Knights, 1.13). Both are number two options on their respective teams, but could put up big numbers anyway. The rest of the draft included an auto-pick of Patriots defense at 1.12 by Detroit Players and the last rookie running back of any value, Devonta Freeman at 1.15 by MoRRie’s Pogiboys.

ROUND TWO
Adding to their riches, 100 Acre Pooh Bears had three second round picks. They grabbed rookie receiver Mike Evans (2.1) and then Teddy Bridgewater (2.10) and Johnny Manziel (2.14) to corner the market on rookie QBs. What, no Blake Bortles here?

Sweep the Leg Zabka added another hyped rookie receiver, Kelvin Benjamin (2.2) to Watkins, while Original Salt backed up Jay Cutler with Ben Roethlisberger (2.3). Drafting right after Shoguns of Harlem, I noticed how often he would take players I wanted, such as Justin Hunter at pick 2.4. That forced team retread Darren Sproles at 2.5 for Hungry Ourobouros, followed by sophomore receiver Markus Wheaton at 2.6 for Another Bad Creation, making Wheaton ABC's first draft pick since they didn’t have a first rounder. Italian Stallionz also got on the 2014 draft board with rookie receiver Marqise Lee at 2.7. Next, Fockers drafted old favorite Carson Palmer, despite having the indestructible Andrew Luck at quarterback. Curious move. MoRRie’s Pogiboys went old, Dwayne Bowe (2.9), and then young with rookie RB Khiry Robinson (2.11) with his two second round picks.

The bottom of the second round featured the now very well positioned rookie RB Jeremy Hill (2.13) to Detroit Players and a shot in the dark by Jedi Knights at Lamar Miller (2.14). Mandalorian Warriors got the consensus defense, Seahawks with the second-to-last pick, while Ann Arbor Bamfers took Heath Miller to clean up.

ROUND THREE
Conspicuously missing from all this drafting action was Team Cameltoe, who had the highest draft slot due to last year’s horrific 2-11 record, but their first two picks of 2014 were traded to Pooh Bears — including the #1 overall. And in a scary look at the future, Pooh Bears owns Cameltoe’s 2015 RD1&2, 2016 RD1, and 2017 RD1&2 picks. So um, enjoy drafting in the third round for awhile Felipe! With his first pick this year, Felipe decided to auto-draft and pulled up rookie Andre Williams, who actually isn’t a bad pick at all, as he could start for the Giants sooner than later.

We originally lauded Original Salt for not keeping a quarterback and freeing up a slot for position players, but if Reno is going to go QB-QB-QB with his first three picks anyway, it seems like he should have just kept a signal caller at the expense of using his draft on Cutler, Roethlisberger, and now Ryan Tannehill (3.3).  Then again, maybe QBs are flying off the board in round three, with Jake Locker (3.4), the now ACL-torn Sam Bradford (3.12), Alex Smith (3.15), and Blake Bortles (3.16) all gone by the end. Round three also seemed like when the top defenses were drafted, with ABC taking Cardinals (3.6), Bamfers snagging Rams (3.9), and Jedi Knights with Browns (3.13).

As for the non QB/DSTs, it was high upside receiver Jordan Matthews at 3.2 for Squirtle Squad, followed by a vet RB run of Pierre Thomas, LeGarrette Blount, and Danny Woodhead — the latter both by Fockers in consecutive picks. Youngsters Kenny Stills and Odell Beckham (P Funk’s first third-rounder, he took Bradford one pick later) were happy to be taken up high, and old warhorse Reggie Wayne (3.14) will get a chance for a title with Pooh Bears.

ROUND FOUR
We reviewed through five rounds in 2012, and then four rounds in 2013, so it would make sense to stop at RD3 for this year, but we’ll forge on ahead! After all, it’s the middle rounds where mega-value is created. Maybe super sleeper Travis Kelce (4.15) is Pogiboys’ next great tight end? Or perhaps David Carr (P Funk, 4.11) will emerge as the best fantasy quarterback of his class. Heck, there’s a chance Bryce Brown (4.10) could emerge out of Buffalo’s crowded backfield. Okay, maybe not.

Actually, let’s just look at some interesting picks during this round and the next two. We like Arian Foster’s handcuff, second year RB Jonathan Grimes (4.3). Charles Clay to Another Bad Creation at 4.6. We think Cecil Shorts (4.16) could be a steal for Warriors, if Shorts can return to form. And then we have intriguing TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (5.13), which started a run of three straight Tampa Bay players: Seferian-Jenkins, Buccaneers defense, and Josh McCown. That’s when you know it’s getting dirty, when the lowly Bucs start to get combed over for talent!

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

2014 Keeper Analysis: Western Conference

Here we are, with another edition of “rank the keepers!” As always, we separate out keepers into gold/silver/bronze status and as you’ll see, we’ve got quite a few team ranking changes in there, and lots of new faces. The keeper spreadsheet reveals all and here are the 2013 West and East grades.

Knights Who Say Ni
Another Bad Creation +2(15): Aaron Rodgers (3) Marshawn Lynch (3) Reggie Bush (2) Joique Bell (1) Andre Johnson (3) Vincent Jackson (3)
Jedi Knights -1(13): Peyton Manning (3) Alfred Morris (2) Wes Welker (2 Marques Colston (2) Emmanuel Sanders (2) Jason Witten (2)
Original Salt +1(10): Matt Forte (3) Steven Jackson (1) Bernard Pierce (1) Roddy White (2) Jordan Cameron (2) Terrance Williams (1)
P Funk All Stars +3(8): Joe Flacco (1) Ryan Mathews (2) DeSean Jackson (2) Michael Floyd (2) Tavon Austin (1) Bengals (0)


Another Bad Creation went 5-8 last season but had a great keeper core. This year, they return with an even stronger group, at least on paper. Aaron Rodgers and Marshawn Lynch are franchise players at their respective positions, and Andre Johnson and Vincent Jackson are old but still very productive. Both of them could be headed for greener pastures soon, but their performance still gets them to near the top ten at receiver. The only question here is if Joique Bell might supplant Reggie Bush sometime in the Lions’ backfield, but it seems like a straight time share. Rodgers must stay healthy this year though, to give Oliver a shot at the division -- and the Super Bowl, which ABC was at two years ago.

Jedi Knights have been tops here in the recent past and even though they lost a point in the rankings, Peyton Manning can carry this team far. The only new face is Emmanuel Sanders, taking over for Steve Smith, and he should be a decent starter. Despite only one gold caliber player on this core, that one franchise player can throw up 40+ points a week! This veteran heavy group is built to win now and is a solid all-around.

For awhile last year, it looked like Jordan Cameron was going to become a franchise caliber tight end. He cooled off dramatically, but he gives Original Salt (formerly Rhythm Drive) a top option at a position of need. This team is built around Matt Forte the hopeful return of Roddy White. Steven Jackson and Bernard Pierce are mediocre RB options, but hopes are high for new keeper Terrance Williams. We love the move Reno pulled off in deciding to kick Philip Rivers to the curb, even after a great season, realizing that only he was only one of two teams that wasn’t already keeping a quarterback. He'll have his choice of the non-keepers and an extra slot for a position player!

P Funk All Stars surprised all the pundits by throwing up a 8-5 season and making the playoffs. This after we mocked them for keeping two mediocre quarterbacks as their keepers. This year, they dumped Sam Bradford but kept Joe Flacco, still a borderline fantasy starter. And then there’s potential rookie bust Tavon Austin, who only had three double digit scoring games last season. Oh right, and Paolo kept Bengals defense, a very strange move (last year he kept 49ers). The good news is that Ryan Mathews, new trade acquisition DeSean Jackson, and the emerging Michael Floyd are all nice pieces. Can P Funk keep winning despite a keeper core that consistently scores increduously low?

Hoke-A-Mania
MoRRie’s Pogiboys +5(15): Tom Brady (2) Eddie Lacy (3) Trent Richardson (0) Calvin Johnson (3) Michael Crabtree (2) Percy Harvin (2)
Team Cameltoe +3(13): Russell Wilson (2) Doug Martin (2) Julio Jones (3) Jordy Nelson (3) Riley Cooper (1) Jordan Reed (2)
Hungry Ourorboros +0(11): Matt Ryan (2) Ray Rice 2 Giovani Bernard (2) Victor Cruz (2) Eric Decker (1) Dennis Pitta (2)
Ann Arbor Bamfers -2(10): Colin Kaepernick (2) Nick Foles (2) Frank Gore (2) CJ Spiller (2) Fred Jackson (1) Kendall Wright (2)

It’s hard for a keeper player to earn a zero score. We gave one out to Bengals defense on principle, as no defenses should ever be kept. Kickers would get a zero too. The only position players to receive a zero last year were Willis McGahee, who didn’t have a NFL team at the time, and Michael Crabtree, who was effectively out for the season. So here comes Trent Richardson, Mr. Dud, who we think deserves a zero until he proves otherwise. Even with that fat zero, Pogiboys is stacked and looking to avenge a Super Bowl loss. The trade for Tom Brady gave them a borderline franchise QB. Rookie Eddie Lacy -- the only lasting haul from Pogiboys' three top ten picks last season -- emerged as a borderline franchise piece, and of course there’s still Calvin Johnson, the best WR in the game. If Crabtree and Percy Harvin can manage to stay even semi-healthy, this keeper core is one of the best in the league. Even with Trent Zero Richardson.

After last season’s epic off-season rebuild, Cameltoe was still looking a little shaky and they went 2-11 to add insult to injury. As it turned out, Daryl Richardson was a bust, Bears defense wasn’t even kept, but at least Jordy Nelson returned from injury to become gold status. This year, Felipe worked the trade market again and landed Doug Martin and Jordan Reed. Of course, they could have had this year’s #1 overall selection if they hadn’t moved a boatload of picks for Russell Wilson, who is grading out to likely be a middle of the road QB option. Still, we love Cameltoe’s aggressiveness, and we hope the fantasy gods reward this team in the future. As it stands, their keeper core is a vast improvement over two years ago.

Hungry Ouroboros entered Maize and Blue after inheriting a championship team starring Drew Brees, but quickly blew that squad up. Two years later, they are still trying to find that elusive core that will enable them to return to the playoffs. Rookie find Giovani Bernard is looking promising, and the trade for Ray Rice should give this team an upgrade from their former top back, Darren Sproles. Victor Cruz is looking for a bounce back year, while Eric Decker will likely suffer greatly away from Peyton. Jon waited on the injured Dennis Pitta all last year, and he’ll replace Antonio Gates as the TE keeper. Matt Ryan is what he is, and this team is sorely lacking a franchise caliber talent.

Having two keeper slots dedicated to QBs has to hurt doesn’t it? Last year, Bamfers kept Eli Manning and Colin Kaepernick, and this year they’ll replace Eli with Nick Foles. We’re not saying Foles isn’t good, but it probably behooves Randy to start looking for trade partners soon, as both quarterbacks are ranked about the same. Frank Gore continues to make his mark, but C.J. Spiller tanked hard last year. Fred Jackson is around, but once again, four keeper slots dedicated for two overlapping positions probably isn’t efficient. Then again, what do we know, Ann Arbor Bamfers snuck into the playoffs last year (albeit on a 6-7 record). New keeper Kendall Wright doesn’t score touchdowns but had 90+ receptions and he’ll likely be much more valuable once our new PPR rules kick in. The Bamfers had the best keeper core in Hoke-A-Mania at the beginning of last season, but now they’re last… How fast things change!

2014 Keeper Analysis: Eastern Conference

Part two of our keeper analysis. The Western Conference review is here.

Lebowski Achievers
Mandalorian Warriors -2(15): Drew Brees (3) LeSean McCoy (3) Brandon Marshall (3) Larry Fitzgerald (2) Julian Edelman (2) Greg Olsen (2)
Shoguns of Harlem +0(13): Tony Romo (2)  Arian Foster (2) Chris Johnson (1) Ben Tate (2)Alshon Jeffery (3) Vernon Davis (3)
Detroit Players -1(11): Robert Griffin III (2)  DeMarco Murray (2) Mark Ingram (1) AJ Green 3) Zach Ertz (1) Kyle Rudolph (2)
Sweep The Leg Zabka +1(10): Andy Dalton (1) Maurice Jones-Drew (1) Knowshon Moreno (2) Rashad Jennings (1) Torrey Smith (2) Rob Gronkowski (3)

When you are one point off a perfect keeper core score of 18, it’s hard not to come down to the pack a bit. That’s what’s happened to Mandalorian Warriors, even though they are still very strong on paper. I mean, for one, Warriors traded away Rob Gronkowski, who graded out as a gold player. New TE Greg Olsen isn’t on the Gronk’s level, but he’s far less prone to injury and he’s a nice starter. Drew Brees, LeSean McCoy, and Brandon Marshall are all tops at their positions, and the swap of Roddy White for Larry Fitzgerald isn’t exactly a downgrade. Julian Edelman basically took over everthing Danny Amendola was supposed to provide for New England and he rounds out another strong contender for Matt.

DM Paper Company has been rebranded "Shoguns of Harlem" and Mike is hoping a new name leads to more success after a 4-9 season. The two new faces on the keeper core, Alshon Jeffery and Ben Tate, should revitalize the team. Jeffery is already gold level, and there’s a chance Tate could join him. Vernon Davis is a franchise TE, but Tony Romo, Arian Foster, and Chris Johnson have all seen better days. If these Shoguns want to return to their winning ways -- they were 27-12 in the three years prior to last -- they’ll need the new blood to really step up.

There was a time when Detroit Players ruled this division, and the league. After three losing campaigns, Ariel’s team came back strong last year and got into the post-season. Their keeper core lost a point overall, but that’s mainly due to Robert Griffin’s slight regression. He could just as easily vault back to gold status, but for now, this team relies on A.J. Green’s continued ascendance. DeMarco Murray is quietly a top ten RB, but we have to admit that we’re confused by the keeper selection of Mark Ingram. Last year was a lost season for Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz wasn’t as effective as anticipated. However, both have lots of potential and Detroit Players could play both at the same time, taking advantage of our new flex rules for tight ends. For now, it’s the young core of RG3, Green, and Murray that will have to power Players’ re-ascent to the top.

We love how quickly Alan has moved to put his stamp on Sweep The Leg Zabka. We all know a league is more exciting with lots of player movement and Alan has replaced four keepers from last year’s Wayne State Tartars. Three of the new keepers were acquired via trade, and even if Rob Gronkowski can’t always stay healthy, the Gronk brings a chaotic energy to a new franchise looking for an identity. Knowshown Moreno should start again, and maybe Maurice Jones-Drew can bounce back in a big way, or Rashad Jennings will pound his way to the top of the Giants’ depth chart. Nobody is that excited about Andy Dalton but at least he’ll have speedster Torrey Smith to chuck the ball to. Zabka isn’t a contender by any means but they’ve already taken multiple steps in the right direction by being bold and leaping fearlessly into the future.

The Wood
100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears -1(16): Cam Newton (3) Shane Vereen (2) Dez Bryant (3) Antonio Brown (3) Cordarrelle Patterson (2) Jimmy Graham (3)
Squirtle Squad +4(14): Adrian Peterson (3) Zac Stacy (2) Josh Gordon (1) Randall Cobb (3) Keenan Allen (2) Julius Thomas (3)
*Fockers +1(13): Andrew Luck (3) Montee Ball (2) Le'Veon Bell (2) Demaryius Thomas (3) Pierre Garcon (2) Antonio Gates (1
Italian Stallionz -4(11): Matthew Stafford (3 Jamaal Charles (3) Andre Ellington (2) Stevan Ridley (1) Mike Wallace (1) DeAndre Hopkins (1)

Not to be outdone by Mandalorian Warriors, defending champ Pooh Bears also had a near perfect keeper core last year with five gold players. They’ll take a little dip this year, but they still boast the top keeper core heading into 2014. Cam Newton and Jimmy Graham are the cornerstones here, with Dez Bryant being joined by Antonio Brown to form a fantastic foursome. Last year’s backfield of the future didn’t last long, as Ray Rice and Doug Martin quickly lost their gold luster and were traded. So now the RB duties fall to Shane Vereen, who’s more a pass catcher than a runner. Cordarrelle Patterson had a huge last month of last season and could be set to vault into stardom if someone can get him the deep ball. Overall, Pooh Bears have become a bit unbalanced between run-pass, but they’ll have three first rounders in 2014 to rectify that, not to mention the #1 overall pick!

What a difference a superb rookie running back makes! Much like Pogiboys with Eddie Lacy, Squirtle Squad hit jackpot with Zac Stacy and could now have a near franchise back on their hands. In addition, Keenan Allen was the best rookie receiver last year, and Julius Thomas could challenge for top two TE status. Those three are a clear upgrade over last year’s keepers of Ronnie Hillman, Ryan Tannehill, and T.Y. Hilton. Maybe just a little. Add in a top ten receiver in Randall Cobb, plus the freak that is Adrian Peterson, and Brian’s team should be one of the favorites for the title right? Unfortunately, Josh Gordon’s playing status for the year is up in the air. If he plays, he’s a gold player, and Squirtles has the best keepers in the land. But for now, Gordon can only receive a bronze rating, if not an outright zero. Don’t do drugs kids!

Making all the right moves since entering Maize and Blue is co-GM Hong, who has been quietly pulling the strings for *Fockers. So far he’s correctly chosen Andrew Luck over MatthewStafford, moved Stafford for Demaryius Thomas and picks, and then had both his rookie running backs pan out in fine fashion. Bell and Ball aren’t the best backfield in the land, but if they fulfill their potential, they easily could challenge for a top combo. Pierre Garcon is a great WR#2, and his value will increase when his many receptions start scoring points. The only weak link here is new acquisition Antonio Gates, who isn’t long for the NFL world, but Gates is still an upgrade over last year’s disaster at tight end -- a hole that likely kept this team out of the playoffs. This looks like the year that Fockers is poised to challenge the top dogs in this ultra-difficult division.

Italian Stallionz only finished one game under 0.500 but somehow it seems like their team is tailspinning. Last season, Stallionz were the darlings of The Wood, and had an enviable keeper core. Now, they’ve lost Tony Gonzalez to retirement, Reggie Wayne to injury and old age, and are now counting on unproven youngsters like Andre Ellington and DeAndre Hopkins to keep them competitive. Matthew Stafford and Jamaal Charles are gold plated, but there’s literally no good receiving threat on this team, unless you count new acquisition Mike Wallace. Stevan Ridley might cure his fumblitis but it’s more likely he’ll watch from the bench as Ellington (hopefully) explodes into a star. In a division this tough, even a little slip is enough to send you to the bottom.

Top Five Keeper Cores
  1. 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears (16): A slight fall but rose to the top! And soon to add a #1 pick!
  2. Mandalorian Warriors (15): This core has descended from Mount Olympus and is now only demi-god status
  3. Another Bad Creation (15): If Reggie Bush and Joique Bell were combined into one back, this would be the perfect six
  4. MoRRie’s Pogiboys (15): Oh Trent, if only you were good. This keeper core could be easily two points higher.
  5. Squirtle Squad (14): Josh Gordon could vault this team to the top, as Squirtles gained huge off last year’s rookie draft

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Pre-Draft Moves, and New Owner

Let’s welcome a new owner to the league, Alan! He’s taking over from the moribund Ann Arbor Bamfers franchise, who have been the worst team in Maize and Blue over the last decade. [Edit: Actually Alan is replacing WS Tartars!] The newly rebranded Sweep The Leg Zabka will look to turn things around quickly. The only thing we know about Alan is that he’s young, he’s hungry, he’s a Soliman, and he’s a Michigan State Spartan. Worse than that, he’s got a Comcast email account. Cobra Kai is stuck in the Eighties! Regardless, let’s raise our glasses for Jay’s years of service and give a hearty welcome to new guy Alan!

2014 Pre-Draft Trades:
  • #174: Hungry Ouroboros trade 2014 RD3 to Pooh Bears for Ray Rice
  • #175: Cameltoe trade 2014 RD1 to Pooh Bears for Doug Martin and Jordan Reed
  • #176: P Funk All Stars 2014 RD2 to Pogiboys for DeSean Jackson
  • #177: Sweep the Leg Zabkha trade 2017 RD1 and 2018 RD2 to Mandalorian Warriors for Rob Gronkowski and Knowshon Moreno
  • #178: Fockers trade 2014 RD10 to Hungry Ouroboros for Antonio Gates
  • #179: Sweep the Leg Zabkha trade 2014 RD3 to Squirtle Squad for Rashad Jennings
  • #180: Italian Stallionz trade 2014 RD7 to Hungry Ouroboros for Mike Wallace  

Last off-season we saw a ton of pre-draft moves that included the blockbuster involving Matthew Stafford and Demaryius Thomas, as well as Cameltoe's complete rebuild. This off-season, we had quite a few moves also, with many notable names shuffling around. The most signifcant trade was Cameltoe moving their 2014 first rounder to Pooh Bears in exchange for Doug Martin and Jordan Reed. That pick ended up winning the lottery (I think) and gave our defending champions the #1 overall pick for 2014! Yowza! Only time will tell if that was a worthwhile trade, but a part of Felipe must be sad that he won’t be able to grab his choice of rookie.

Pooh Bears wasn’t done either, as they continued to clear spare parts off their championship team. Longtime stalwart Ray Rice was dumped to Hungry Ouroboros for a 2014 third rounder, as the ownership team of Jose and Jayvee decided that they couldn’t put up with Rice’s off-season, well, you know what Rice did. Ouroboros then acquired a pair of low end picks in exchange for Mike Wallace and Antonio Gates, essentially giving away two of his 2013 keepers. P Funk All Stars got into the action by sending a 2014 second rounder to Pogiboys for DeSean Jackson, who had an outstanding season last year, and will now bring his deep speed to a new NFL and fantasy team.

And since new owners love to make a splash, Alan put a stamp on his new team by moving a 2014 RD3, 2017 RD1 and 2018 RD2 to acquire Rob Gronkowski, Knowshon Moreno, and Rashad Jennings. We’ll take a look at the impact of these new keepers later on, but it’s interesting to note that the last three new owners have all made big splash trades -- Ouroboros moved Drew Brees, Fockers acquired Demaryius Thomas -- before even playing a game. Note: Matt has now firmly established his first mover advantage for hitting up the new owner for trades before they've even had a chance to catch their breath. I remember I got an email from him literally within an hour or two of taking over Ouroboros three years ago!

Saturday, August 16, 2014

Draft Order 2014

Fockers had great odds to land the #1 overall pick, with 40% or so of the lottery chips. They had their pick and also Italian Stallionz’s number one from last year’s Matt Stafford trade. However, the odds were not in Hong’s favor as 100 Acre Pooh Bears vaulted into the top spot despite only a 20% chance. Jose had three lottery picks, owed from his deals with Team Cameltoe and Another Bad Creation. Indeed, it turned out that Cameltoe’s pick came through and now our defending 2013 champions get the first pick. The rich get richer I guess. Note: This is Pooh Bear’s second #1 pick in three years, as they won in 2012 on the strength of owning P Funk All Stars’ first rounder. Should Pooh Bears rename themselves the Cavaliers for the season? (Oh wait, that would imply Lebron won the title last year, haha. Sucker!)

2014 Draft Order:
  1. Team Cameltoe (2-11)
  2. Sweep the Leg Zabka (4-9)
  3. Original Salt (4-9)
  4. Shoguns of Harlem (4-9)
  5. Hungry Hungry Ouroboros (5-8)
  6. Another Bad Creation (5-8)
  7. Italian Stallionz (6-7)
  8. Fockers (7-6)
  9. Ann Arbor Bamfers (6-7)
  10. Squirtle Squad (7-6)
  11. P Funk All Stars (8-5)
  12. Detroit Players (8-5)
  13. Jedi Knights (8-5)
  14. 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears (9-4)
  15. MoRRie's Pogiboys (10-3)
  16. Mandalorian Warriors (11-2)

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

10 Years: Divisions

We already looked at who the best divisions, conferences, and franchises were league wide. Now for a brief look at what kinds of trends there have been intra-division. It was quite interesting to see which divisions had some parity versus which were solely dominated by one (or two) teams. It's also cool to see that some of the traditional powerhouses have been fading while new franchises are rising!

WEST RED: Knights Who Say Ni
Another Bad Creation has mostly controlled the division here, with five division titles, two championships (2004, 2009), and only two losing seasons (2007, 2013). They had a great run in 2008-10, averaging ten wins over three seasons. Of late however, they have fallen upon hard times, dipping to their personal worst 5-8 last season. The second best team in the division, Original Salt aka Rhythm Drive, has been an above average franchise as one of seven teams to possess over a 0.500 regular season win average. With an impressive seven straight winning seasons between 2005-2011 to their name, they haven’t captured that elusive championship despite advancing to the Super Bowl twice (2005, 2008). Historically, ABC and Original Salt have clearly been a class above their pack.

For example, P Funk All Stars have had two one win campaigns, plus a recent two win season, and were stuck in a very bad place. After three winning years covering 2004-2006 — including an 11-2 record in 2005, which got them their only division title — P Funk had been horrible for most of the last half decade, until their recent 8-5 bounce back. Hopefully this is a sign that they've turned the corner and are ready to ascend again. Dragging up the historical rear has been Jedi Knights, who have been the second worst team overall in the history of the league. The good news is that Jedi have been outstanding the past two seasons, compiling an 18-7-1 record while capturing consecutive division titles. After eight straight years of losing records, Jedi Knights might have finally emerged from padawan status.

WEST WHITE: Hoke-A-Mania
This division mostly serves as a punching bag for Morrie’s Pogiboys. What else can it be when one team wins eight of ten division titles? The two bottom feeders here, Cameltoe and Ann Arbor Bamfers have only seven more regular season wins combined than Pogiboys do all by themselves (95 to 88). Forget division titles, Bamfers and Cameltoe have only had five winning seasons between the two of them. Each of them can "boast" decade long winning percentages in the sub 39% area and both have been pretty bad year after year. Of course, Ann Arbor Bamfers slid into the playoffs this season despite scoring the league’s lowest PF so all sorts of crazy things happen. And it should be noted that Cameltoe did have a nice 9-4, 8-5, 9-4 stretch in 2007-2009, but that’s been it for franchise highlights. I don’t even want to know how many playoff appearances these two teams have combined. One? Two?

The other team in this division, Hungry Hungry Ouroboros, formerly Thundercats, feature a sterling fifth best regular season winning percentage, three Super Bowl appearances, and a title from 2011. But all of that was under old ownership. Since 2012 they’ve pooped out consecutive 5-8 records and it seems like despite being nominally in the playoff hunt, they are mostly only marginally competitive due to being in a very weak division. Fun fact: One thing this division loves to do is get into tie games. They have had an astonishing eleven ties, whereas the next closest division only has four total. I guess it’s true: nobody wants to win anything in Hoke-A-Mania!

EAST BLUE: The Wood
Is this another case of a juggernaut towering over the rest of his division mates? 100 Acre Pooh Bears has ruled The Wood with a honey coated fist for many years, dominating to the tune of seven division titles. They’ve also won championships in 2006 and 2013, had eight winning seasons, and only suffered a few down years (aka "The Great Pooh Hibernation of 2008-9"). Interestingly, this division hasn’t had all doormats for Pooh Bears to step on — unlike Pogiboys in Hoke-A-Mania. While Italion Stallionz, Fockers, and Squirtle Squad have all compiled winning percentages slightly below average, they aren’t terrible. In fact, Squirtle Squad, who has the lowest decade long win percentage for this division, has been to an equal number of Super Bowls (three) as Pooh Bears and have also tied them for rings won. Until this past season when Pooh Bears won it all, it could have been argued that Squirtles were the class of the division over the past decade even though they only won two division titles. They’ve certainly been just as dangerous of a team when they get into the post-season.

Porta took over a franchise coming off four straight losing seasons and immediately righted the ship with a 9-4 2012 campaign. Even though his Italian Stallionz slipped to 6-7 this past year, that record helped The Wood turn in a season that featured them as the most competitive division in Maize in Blue -- with three teams with winning records, and the one win away from 0.500 Stallionz. As for *Fockers formerly Human Amoebas, they can boast of one division title, although it was “earned” from a 5-8 season in 2008. A 5-8 division winner, that’s just embarrassing! They barely missed the playoffs this past season, due to a tie-breaker, but their co-owners assure everyone that they’ll be back in competition next year. Tidbit: Aside from Pooh Bears, none of the other teams here have chalked up a double digit win season. Also, this division used to be called “7 Championship Drive” so clearly there were four championships that came before 2004 I don't have the historical data for.

EAST GOLD: Lebowski Achievers
After going 2-10-1 in 2009, Mandalorian Warriors have increased their win total in each of the last four years and are now in the enviable position of defending their perch atop Lebowski Achievers with an ultra strong team. Warriors have won five division titles during their reign, with three of them in a row, and the meter's still running. Traditionally, the Warriors have had pairs of down seasons sandwiched by a string of successful ones. If that holds true, a two or three win season is coming for them in 2014! Nipping right at the Warriors' heels for regular season wins is Detroit Players, who are the only back-to-back champions from the past decade. Despite only winning two division titles (2004, 2008), Detroit Players has put up some gaudy win seasons and looks to be recovered from a nasty bout of losing campaigns from 2010-12. They made the playoffs this past season and could be ready to make a return to their winning ways.

Wayne State Tartars came aboard in 2006, slumped to 2-11 in 2007, had a brief string of success, and have now plummeted to three straight four win seasons. They captured a division title in 2009 but that seems like a long time ago. They’ve been the losing-est team in Lebowski Achievers and has had to contend with two very successful teams, plus Dunder Mifflin Paper Company, which is the closest squad to playing straight 0.500 ball in Maize and Blue history. DM Paper Company, throughout all its name changes, has a ten year record of 64-65-1. That’s incredible! It’s no surprise that they’re the eighth ranked winning percentage team, as they've been perfectly average. Their one shot at glory, a league leading 11-2 season in 2010, was upended by Squirtle Squad in the Conference Finals. After three winning seasons, DM Paper Company dipped to 4-9 this past season but history indicates that they'll climb out of their hole, albeit slowly.

[Note: WS Tartars had a change in ownership recently and are now Sweep The Leg Zabka. Additionally, DM Paper Company rebranded to become the Shoguns of Harlem.]

Thursday, July 31, 2014

10 Years: Who's the Best?

With the conclusion of the 2013 regular season, it’s been ten long years of Maize and Blue. Well, actually, it’s been much longer than that but ESPN only has ten years of stats going backwards. Still, a decade is a long time and I wanted to take the opportunity to look at the historical record, compile some numbers, and answer some pressing questions. First off, here’s what I’ve been working off of, a compiled list of W/L/T for 2004-2013. I also uploaded the old standings from 2004-2009. Note: Data could be wrong as I’m just going off of what ESPN has recorded!

Also, in the interest of keeping things clear, with division names changing all the time as each winner picks a new name, I went back to the old way of clarifying between divisions by using Red and White for Western Conference and Blue and Gold for Eastern Conference. (I can only hope the latter reference was to the 90s X-Men team divisions. Since we all know otherwise that it would be “maize” instead of “gold.") Hope that helps!

Which is the better conference?
Colloquially, it’s always been said that the Eastern Conference, currently made up of Lebowski Achievers and The Wood was the tougher conference. Well, turns out that’s right on just about every level. Over the course of 1,040 regular season games in ten seasons, the East holds an edge in regular season victories, winning 50.24% of their games, compard to 49.76% wins for the Western Conference teams. Most importantly, they hold the edge in championships won, 7-3.
  • Eastern Conference (Lebowski Achievers, The Wood): 521-516-3, 50.24%
  • Western Conference (Knights Who Say Ni, Hoke-A-Mania): 510-515-15, 49.76%

What is the best division?
Hands down, the best division has been Lebowski Achievers, who are the only division to compile a winning record, at a combined record of 0.513. The other three divisions are separated by mere tenths of a few hundred points. Even when looking at championships, Lewbowski Achievers have won three titles, which equals their conference mates The Wood. Of course, The Wood has had representatives at five Super Bowls, one more than Lebowski, but their division winning percentage is the lowest of the four. Interestingly, both Hoke-A-Mania and Knights Who Say Ni have good regular season winning percentages despite the extreme lack of parity between the haves and have nots from those two divisions. This clearly must be because our schedule is very division focused, with two games each against our in-division opponents.
  1. Lebowski Achievers (East/Gold): 265-252-3, 51.3%
  2. Hoke-A-Mania (West/White): 254-255-11, 49.9%
  3. Knights Who Say Ni (West/Red): 256-260-4, 49.6%
  4. The Wood: 256-264-0 (East/Blue), 49.2%

Who has been the best franchise?
It’s really hard to answer this question, and no definitive answer should exist because it’s fun to argue who is the best by different metrics. For example, looking purely at championships, the main reason we play the game, the best franchise over the past decade has been Detroit Players. Not only have they won two titles, but they did it back-to-back in 2007-2008. Another Bad Creation, 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears, and Squirtle Squad have all won two rings, but theirs were quite a few years apart. Mandalorian Warriors and Thundercats (now Hungry Ouroboros) have each won one championship each. Eight of the sixteen franchises haven’t been to the Super Bowl in the last decade, making Maize and Blue similar to the NBA, where a handful of teams seem to win the Finals.

One could argue that the only qualification for “best franchise” should be that you’ve won the Super Bowl at least once. That could eliminate someone like Morrie’s Pogiboys, who despite their sterling regular season record, only just appeared in their first Super Bowl. But it's hard to say that Alvin's team hasn't been great. If so, should “best” also equate to “wins the most” or perhaps “most consistent?” Shouldn’t division titles and playoff appearances count? Going by those metrics, Pogiboys should rank among the very best.

If the question is "who wins the most in the regular season," then there are really only three contenders here: Morrie's Pogiboys, Another Bad Creation, and 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears. Looking at the regular season overall winning percentage, these three teams jump out at you as they win over 63% of their games. To put that in perspective, the winningest regular season NFL team of all time, the Chicago Bears, only win at a 57.6% clip.

Looked at in another light, these three teams have absolutely dominated the regular season. Another Bad Creation has won five of the their division’s titles while 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears have won seven of theirs. Incredibly, Pogiboys have won EIGHT division titles. It may be no coincidence but two of the traditionally worst regular season franchises also reside in Alvin’s division: Ann Arbor Bamfers and Team Cameltoe. Looks like Pogiboys love to beat up on their weaker competition!

Let’s also take a look at five year splits, for the periods of 2004-08 and 2009-13. There’s not a whole lot of shifting around but it’s an interesting comparison to the total wins/loss record. We can see that P Funk All Stars played the first five years at a 55.4% winning clip before super collapsing to 26.6% the last five seasons.

And how about if we narrow that number down to the last three seasons. Then we get a much different picture of which teams have been trending up or down. Teams such as Ann Arbor Bamfers and Fockers are nudging up a few slots, with Jedi Knights making an incredible leap over the past three years from the second-to-last team in Maize and Blue to a top three ranking on the strength of 6-7, 10-2-1, and 8-5 seasons. Whatever Chris is eating for breakfast, everyone else should be too! As for teams falling down the charts, fans of Hungry Ouroboros, Detroit Players, WS Tartars, and especially Original Salt need to be worried that their teams are moving in the wrong direction and now circling the drain.

Who has been the best owner?
Well, that's an answer we just won't be able to figure out through numbers can we? Is it someone who has piloted his team from worst to first? Someone who has made the most savvy trades and free agent pickups? How about the manager who has managed to revamp his core while consistently winning? Or maybe it was the owner who decided to slip out the door during the championship party, leaving at the top of his game. Let the debate rage on!