Build for the Future

I was wondering what the benchmark for steady success was for Maize and Blue. See, my longtime league is a ten team keeper, and to stay competitive you gotta put up over 100+ points per game. We call those “century” games and a good measure of how well a team is doing is to simply count up how many century games they have. Well, needless to say, that 100+ points number is not the same for a sixteen team league. Even taking account differing scoring systems I wanted to know what Maize and Blue’s version of a century game would be. What’s the benchmark for a consistent winner?

The obvious way to look at this is this season’s Points For marks. We have four 5-2 teams so far this season, and three of those teams are our top scorers for the season: Mandalorian Warriors, Jedi Knights, and 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears. (The outlier is Detroit Players, who are only #12 for PF.) Those three have scored 639, 603, and 584 points respectively. Average that out and we get 86.95 points per game.

To put that into context, I averaged out the scores for our bottom three PF teams -- P Funk All Stars, WS Tartars, Ann Arbor Bamfers -- and came up with 60.3 points per game. (If we take out the Bamfer’s putrid 397 points and insert Team Cameltoe’s numbers instead, we get an average of 63.10 points. The reason we would take Bamfers out was because their numbers were skewed by a 25 point WK3.) It’s clear that the difference between a top tier team and a bottom feeder is about twenty-five points per game. The teams at the back of the pack put up only about 72.5% of the points of those at the top. They're playing six on eight essentially.

Let’s look at what an average team might be expected to put up though. I took the middle four PF teams -- Hungry Hungry Ouroboros, Dunder Mifflin Paper Company, MoRRie’s Pogiboys, *Fockers -- and averaged their scores out. The number was 77.9 points per game. Those teams, the #7-10 PF teams, were only 9.05 points away from becoming perennial powerhouses. What this tells us is that the leap from cellar dweller to average team is a long one -- an owner needs to find an extra 17.6 points per game -- but from from average to contender isn't nearly as large a jump. Woohoo, hope for everyone!

For our league, I think the benchmark for a good game should be somewhere north of 86.95 points. It would be easy to say that 90 points per game is the “century” mark for our sixteen team league but that's not fun at all. I propose we nudge that number down to a much more exciting 88 points. Why 88? Because it’s an homage to one of the greatest movies of all time that’s why!

From now on, any game over 88 points is now dubbed a “DeLorean” and it’ll be the new benchmark for success. If you can average a DeLorean over the entire season, well, I’ll let Doctor Emmett Brown say it. "When this baby hits 88 mph, you're gonna see some serious shit!” And if you can put up 88 points in any individual week, there's a good shot you're winning. Hitting 88 points also means you've got some explosiveness in your team.

Unsurprisingly, the top PF teams lead the DeLorean charts this season. 100 Acre Pooh Bears and Another Bad Creation both have four, while Jedi Knights and Italian Stallionz have totaled three each. Mandalorian Warriors blows everyone out of the water with six DeLoreans so far. Take a look at the PF charts with DeLoreans added in, plus columns for PF/PA averages per week. As you can see, none of the bottom four PF teams have recorded a DeLorean yet.

What’s the point of all this? Well, if you scroll down Matthew Berry’s (incredibly longwinded) Draft Day Manifesto 2013 you can get to the bit where he breaks down how to get to a certain number of points to consistently win games. For a standard ten team ESPN league, Berry says it takes about eight wins to make the playoffs. More importantly, “the totals from the four playoff teams average out to 94 points per week….we're speaking in generalities, but average 94 points in the first 13 weeks this upcoming season and there's a pretty good chance you're going to win at least eight times. Enough to make it likely -- not guaranteed, but likely -- that you're in the playoffs.” Then he goes on to break down how to get to 94 points each week. ESPN standard weeks have an extra flex position but otherwise it’s very similar to our rosters.

I think Berry's breakdown is an interesting way to look at what your roster needs are and which positions should be in line to improve. For example, assuming we want to hit 83-88 PF per game to be consistently competitive, we might break down a roster like this: #7 Hungry Ouroboros versus #10 Fockers. As we can see, assuming ideal lineups and consistency from players, Ouroboros isn't that far away while the Fockers are a tad bit short. Of course, Fockers is 4-3 now while Ouroboros is only 3-4, so PF can only tell us so much. The point of it all is that just a handful of points really can make the difference between an average team and a good team. And if you're posting 20+ points per game below the leaders, it's time to start coming up with some genius moves! Below is the full PF/PA charts, and here's the Google Doc if you wanna play around with the numbers yourself.

Additional notes:

• I went back to last year’s standings to see if this mark would hold true. I looked at Mandalorian Warriors, 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears, and Another Bad Creation, who were the top three PF teams from 2012. In sixteen games each, they averaged 90.75 points per game.
• Just for kicks, I took the #2 player from each position — the #1 was sometimes way too much better than everyone else, and an outlier — and put them on a roster to see what a truly outrageous team was capable of averaging. The team of Drew Brees (21.7), Matt Forte (15.7), Marshawn Lynch (15.4), AJ Green (12.9), Wes Welker (12.7), Julius Thomas (12.6), Seahawks (11.9), and Mason Crosby (11.3) would combine for 114.20 points per game. That’s your high water mark folks. If you can get to 110+ points per week, you’d never lose!
• Mandalorian Warriors actually average 95.5 points per game this year if you take out their WK7 bye week induced 66 points. (“Justin” Case Keenum started in place of Drew Brees and the Warriors won anyway.) If we took Mandalorian Warriors off the top three PF charts and substituted #4 Original Salt in instead, the top three teams would really be averaging 83.67 points per game. 
• Where you at members of The Wood?! Your "division of death" label is currently in the hands of The Knights Who Say Ni so far this season. They have three winning teams and also three of the top five PF scores. Interestingly, Original Salt, who has outscored everyone in the division except Jedi Knights, is the only non-winning team. That may have something to do with facing the league’s toughest schedule so far. See below.
• We can’t forget to account for PA while looking at these charts. It just so happens that the top two PF teams have faced two of the softest schedules in the league. Is the competition wilting in front of them? I thought our schedules were weighted so the better teams played each other? What’s going on? Poor Original Salt, who is #4 in PF but getting hammered by the toughest schedule so far on their way to a 2-5 record. The only winning team that’s facing a top five fiercest schedule? Italian Stallionz. The poor Ann Arbor Bamfers are the lowest scoring team in the league AND are getting pounded by the third worst schedule. Ouch!
• I'm for adding a new starting position next year. With nine starters versus eight, it would mitigate the effect of a DEF and K. Also, NFL teams now almost require two RBs to platoon, so adding another RB position or maybe just another flex would increase the players on the fantasy field and give more chances to actually beat your opponent with skill position guys versus entrusting 25% of your score to DEF/K. Who's with me?

Four to the Floor

We’ve got two teams on four game losing streaks. With our season at seven games booked, that’s not good. The thing is, there’s still time for any team to flip the switch and get into post-season contention. Or is there? Let’s take a look at the two teams getting the worst of it so far this season.

Original Salt (2-5)
The last time we checked in on Reno’s team, they were at 0.500 and ranked second in The Knights Who Say Ni division. Since then they’ve dropped three in a row and faced off against three winning teams that are now a cumulative 13-8. Ouch, no wonder they’re skidding toward the bottom of the standings. With six regular season games to go, Reno’s team is only three games back but it’s troubling because their best effort was last week’s 96 points — which was still a loss to Another Bad Creation. With most of their good players on bye for WK8, this team is headed for a fifth loss in a row. Can anything be salvaged from this season?

The Good: A late September pickup of Terance Williams has proved fruitful, as he’s been outplaying Larry Fitzgerald and Greg Jennings. This year's RD3.7 pick, Denarius Moore, has quietly snuck up to top fifteen WR status, and he’s been heating up with 356 yards and three touchdowns over the past month. Running back Matt Forte had his season best 28 points last week and is now ranked as the #2 RB. Despite slowing down a bit recently, Philip Rivers is still the sixth best QB this season.

The Bad: Larry Fitzgerald hasn’t been outright terrible, but with only one 100+ yard receiving game, and only three games in double digits, he’s become Mr. Undependable. With the emergence of Moore and Williams, Greg Jennings is official done after his bye week start this week. This isn’t really a bad bad, but a few weeks ago Jordan Cameron was this year’s fantasy darling. Since then he’s only totaled twenty points in his last three games. It's still nice numbers for a tight end, but no longer incredible world beating stats. With NFL defenses now keyed in on him, is Cameron's time in the spotlight over?

The Ugly: The defense for Original Salt has been terrible. Up until Giants DST had eleven points in WK7, Original Salt’s defense of choice had put up -1, -3, and -6 points. The week before that, the Jets had thrown up -5 points for Reno too. You have to go back to WK3 to find a positive contribution from Original Salt’s defense. And in WK1, Giants DST puked up another -3 points. It’s safe to say that it’s time for Reno to cut Giants DST, who has scored negative points in five of their seven games. While no wins were likely coming in with even a zero point defense during those matchups, it’s just gross to field a DST that gives you negative points week after week.

Suggestion: There seems to be an extra receiver on this team, maybe it would behoove Reno to explore some trade options for Larry Fitzgerald, who still has name value, if not exactly sustained production anymore. Also, change out that defense!

Team Cameltoe (1-6)
We wish there were nice things we could say about the tailspin Felipe finds his team in. We really loved the effort he put in this off-season for a big rebuild but things just haven’t been working out. They can’t put points up on the board — high mark of 81 points in a WK2 loss — and they don’t have a lot of hope on the horizon. A team that has eclipsed eighty points just once this season is in trouble. Cameltoe fans should be asking, “Can Jadeveon Clowney play offense?”

The Good: The one thing that was unequivocally a win for Felipe’s off-season maneuverings was Jordy Nelson. At the cost of a 2013 RD1 — a pick that eventually turned into Eddie Lacy by Pogiboys — Nelson is now the #1 WR on the charts and has shown no signs of slowing down. The RD3.03 selection of Reuben Randle is paying some dividends as Randle has four touchdowns in his last three games and is averaging 14.0 points over that same span.

The Bad: The mega Russell Wilson trade will take some time to shake out but it’s safe to say that Felipe expected more than the #12 ranked QB for two future first rounders and a second. And look at this roster summary. Aside from Wilson, Nelson, and Julio Jones, nobody else has contributed more than 21 points to the cause. Receiver Harry Douglas, added to the roster two weeks ago, vaulted up to number six on the Cameltoe charts after a single twenty point showing in WK7. That’s not good. And let’s not overlook the horrible gaping hole at running back here. David Wilson and Chris Ivory have been huge disappointments. Recent trade acquisition Daryl Richardson was just cut for Kendall Hutner, who could now be the starter. We’re not sure if Ivory’s 104 yards on 34 carries is legit, but if he can’t do that again, Team Cameltoe has nothing at running back.

The Ugly: Good night Julio Jones. Jones, the shining light on this roster, was put on IR and won’t return until next season. His 10.8 points per game won’t be irrepleacable but his star power will be. Without Jones around, what else do Cameltoe fans have to look forward to? This year’s biggest fantasy injury — so far — also happened to the one team that could least afford it.

Suggestion: This season is over. Even in a weak Hoke-A-Mania division, there’s no coming back for Team Cameltoe. And a wildcard spot ain’t gonna happen. Plus, without Julio, there’s just no going forward. The move now is to plan for the future. There’s no choice but to wait to see if Wilson can improve, but there are a few receiving options here. Maybe it’s time to deal one away to a contender to recoup some of those picks, or maybe explore trading Nelson at the peak of his value.

West Conf Early Look: The Knights Who Say Ni

It's four weeks in but not too early to get in a quick review of how everyone's doing. As pointed out, there's parity everywhere with no undefeated teams, no winless teams, and half the league at 2-2. But not every 2-2 is made equally, as we look at the Knights Who Say Ni division, where everyone is dead even! Last year's four game in review is here.

Jedi Knights (2-2)
With one of the top keeper cores in the league, it's no mystery who sits atop this division...just like last season. Chris' team has the second most Points For and has been led by the insanity that is Peyton Manning. Mr. Manning blasted out of the gates with 46 points in WK1 and is averaging 29.8 points for the season, far and away the best fantasy player so far this year. The Knights lost a 93-97 game to MoRRie's Pogiboys this past week or they would have secured three wins. With Wes Welker proving that he is just as good without Tom Brady -- six TDs so far -- the one-two punch here is spectacular. Who was worried Welker would fall? He's been super steady with 16, 9, 14, and 19 points.

Behind those two is some depth issues though since there's a big dropoff to Steve Smith and steady but unremarkable Marques Colston. Step it up guys, Chris needs you to go undefeated the rest of the way! Also, running back Alfred Morris is dinged up and he's been middling at best. It looks like Robert Turbin, he of the three games with three carries each is going to get a swing this weekend. That's pretty much playing seven on eight. Still, with Peyton around this team can afford a few misfires. Ahem, here's looking at you Jason Witten. I mean, even kicker Blair Walsh has been playing inspired, posting three double digit games. Strangely, Blaine Gabbert is on this team with his five interceptions to no touchdowns ratio. Is he good at applying Peyton's BenGay or something?

Original Salt (2-2)
Trailing not that far behind in PF is the surprising Original Salt, who ended last season on a five game losing streak but is now an even 0.500 and scoring consistently each week. For a team that we semi-mocked in the keeper rankings, it looks like Reno could be just fine. Philip Rivers is back as a fantasy standout, Matt Forte is a very steady top five running back, and Larry Fitzgerald is revived, if still a bit boom/bust when he doesn't nab a touchdown.

Oh right, and then there's must-be-all-caps JORDAN CAMERON!!! The 2013 RD3.02 pick has emerged as the second best tight end around. Is it too early to call him the new Ben Coates? Shannon Sharpe? Rob Gronkowski?! It looks like Cleveland's entire offense is gearing around tossing Cameron the ball as he's had thirty catches and four touchdowns this season on the way to averaging 16 points a week. With Blake Griffin endorsing him, Reno was the only of us smart enough to actually select Cameron Jordan. Er, Jordan Cameron. With a huge WK5 matchup against Jedi Knights coming up, this could be a chance for Original Salt to break away from the crowded division pack.

Another Bad Creation (2-2)
Oliver's team has faced a slightly less difficult schedule than the two teams above him, but his squad has also scored less. After last year's Superbowl loss, ABC opened this season with two delicious wins but then scored only 45 and 65 points in their two subsequent games, both losses. Aaron Rodgers has still been all world but his early bye likely cost Oliver a win in WK4. Andre Johnson has been catching a lot of passes but hasn't hit the end zone yet this season, and Vincent Jackson has been suffering from the same malady.

Three tight ends will have already started games for ABC -- Fred Davis, Scott Chandler, Zach Ertz -- and that's a definite position of need. What Oliver does have is a stable of running backs that are all in the top ten of total scoring so far. While erratic and injury prone across the board, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, and Joique Bell have all had their moments this season. With the just injured, but steady, Darren McFadden also on board, it's a bit of a juggling act to see which RB will do the best each week. Still, with Rodgers back, this team is ready to pull into mid-season on a positive swing.

P Funk All Stars (2-2)
We gave Paolo's team the worst keeper scores (again) before the season for featuring two quarterbacks and a defense so we'll be quick to admit that these All Stars have already done well in equaling their wins total from all of last season. However, that keeper worthy 49ers Defense is ranked near the bottom of the league and started off the season scoring 2, 3, 0 points before righting the ship with a 13 point showing in WK4 against the putrid St. Louis Rams. Sidenote: That Giants defense kept by Original Salt has been even worse, scoring -7 points on the season and literally being the worst D/ST in the league. The lesson is to never keep defenses!

As for the two headed giant of Joe Flacco and Sam Bradford? P Funk added Matt Schaub through the draft and he's been the high scorer for this team. The rest of the roster has been disappointing throughout, with nobody averaging over eight points a game aside from Rams TE Jared Cook. The problem is, Paolo's up-and-comer might be Coby Fleener, who plays the exact same position. We want to applaud the All Star's early season success but we're not entirely sure how sustainable that will be. Can we call for a roster doctor? This team has three QBs, two D/ST, and two starting caliber TEs… At least kicker Stephen Gostkowski has been as good as advertised...

East Conf Early Look: The Wood

With three 3-1 teams, The Wood is once again the toughest division in Maize and Blue. With a new owner on board, it's even got some fresh blood in the water. Put it this way, the worst team in the division is multiple champion Squirtle Squad, who acquired their most recent title in 2010. Let's take a look to see how all these potential powerhouses are faring early on this season. Last season's early The Wood look.

100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears (3-1)
In the toughest division in the land, the Pooh Bears still rule, albeit barely, just a few more points scored than their challenger. Unlike most other teams, J's team is led by a tight end, the very best non-QB fantasy player in the land: Jimmy Graham. Having a competitive advantage with a guy who's averaging 20 points a game on three hundred yard games and six total touchdowns is pretty fantastic. It's bought time for a running attack that has been slow to gel. Doug Martin has been getting the work but not a lot of scores, and Ray Rice has been pretty non-functional all season. This could be worrisome for other teams but the Pooh Bears haven't exactly been hurting for points as they are strong everywhere else. I mean, look at that keeper core.

In a slight twist, Cam Newton and Michael Vick have been splitting time equally, with J unfortunately missing out on all of their big games. It looks like it'll be Vick for WK5, which is something we couldn't have predicted during pre-season. The uptempo offense has Dez Bryant and Antonio Brown performing as top ten WR options, and rookie Kenbrell Thompkins is starting to find his footing after two fantastic games. With three straight games at 90+ points and above, and WK4's 109-98 win against the defending champs, J's team is looking to rule The Woods yet again.

Italian Stallionz (3-1)
Trailing not that far behind and nipping at J's heels is Porta's team. They've had some roster churn but aside from one hiccup, a WK2 low scoring affair against Ann Arbor Bamfers, they've taken care of business. Porta's team have squeaked out a one and six point win while featuring a group of six starters who all average in double digits. Impressive stuff. Their off-season swap at quarterback -- Matt Stafford for Tom Brady -- has resulted in slight upgrade so far this season too. With Jamaal Charles locking in top running back status, the Stallionz lead with a heavy ground attack. A surprising Bilal Powell has been getting a lot of touches and since only fifteen running backs average ten points or more a week, Powell at 10.3 per game has translated into very solid RB#2 status. He's made up for the early season struggles of Stevan Ridley.

The receiving group of Anquan Boldin, Reggie Wayne, good looking rookie DeAndre Hopkins, and Tony Gonzalez have traded off big games to useful effect. None of them have been star caliber but they don't need to be. We see the Stallionz remaining a solid contender all season, and how sweet would it be to have a championship to top off a marriage? (I hope someone got Porta drunk at the bachelor party and made him promise to trade me Jamaal Charles!)

* Fockers (3-1)
Undergoing a questionable name change, co-owner Hong has gone from the catchy "Human Amoebas" to the eye rolling "* Fockers." He told me some explanation for the asterisk but really, who cares? The good news is that the Fockers are making a strong case for their contender status. After only winning six games total last year, they're well on pace for much more than that. Their one loss this season was by seven points, in WK1 to the Dunder Mifflin Paper Company. Pundits would point to their league easiest schedule but Hong's team has been putting the points up on the board so it's not their fault when the competition wilts.

The off-season debate of Andrew Luck versus Matt Stafford has been almost an exact wash points-wise, and there's no question that Demaryius Thomas, received in return for Stafford, has been totally worth it. Thomas is currently sitting pretty as the second best wide receiver on the strength of two huge games. Pierre Garcon has been averaging seven catches a week, and he's emerged as a very nice secondary target. There's a glut of one-and-done receivers here too -- Cecil Shorts, Jerricho Cotchery, Robert Woods, Santonio Holmes -- any of which could catch fire for the occasional game.

As for the run game, it's on the upswing. First overall pick LeVeon Bell returned from injury with two huge TDs, and he'll make up for the hugely disappointing Montee Ball. The Trent Richardson trade really hurts Ahmad Bradshaw's value too. DeAngelo Williams has been getting a lot of carries in Carolina but hasn't sniffed the end zone yet. We hear rumors that GM Hong could soon address his gaping hole at tight end too, which might help this * Fockers challenge for the lead in this heavyweight division. Check out how Coach Hong does his lineup each week, that's so cute!

Squirtle Squad (1-3)
After wiping out last year with three straight losses, Brian started off 2013 by losing a super close game in WK1 and then earned a hard fought nail biting win in WK2 versus Cameltoe. Things were looking up! Then came a minor collapse that had the fans revisit their sinking feelings from last year. Is it as bad as it looks? I mean, there's Adrian Peterson on this team, the best non-QB non-Jimmy Graham player in the league at 19 points per game. And look, there's TE Julius Thomas who set the world on fire in his first two games of the season -- before fading badly recently. Plus there's so much intriguing talent here with young receivers Randall Cobb, T.Y. Hilton, Josh Gordon, and even Marlon Brown. What gives?

The biggest hole has been at quarterback, otherwise known as the Ryan Tannehill experience. Tannehill hasn't been that bad -- no worse than Eli Manning, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer -- but when you start the 24th best QB in a sixteen team league, that's a deficit each week. Perhaps new find Brian Hoyer will help, he of the two eighteen point games in WK3/4. There seems to be a plethora of TEs too, with Thomas, Martellus Bennett, and Charles Clay around. How many top eight tight ends does a team need? Also, who is Dion Lewis and why is he on IR? Super savvy move for next year? Oh la la. The Squirtles are building for the future and likely not a post-season contender.

West Conf Early Look: Hoke-A-Mania

It's no secret that this division isn't exactly the cream of the crop. They were the only division with just one winning team last year and it took only five wins to get to second place. Read on to see how each team seems to be doing worse than each other, as they all stumble their way to the bottom. Last year's mid-season look at Hoke-A-Mania.

MoRRie's Pogiboys (2-2)
The only division winner to not get to double digit wins this season, Pogiboys is perched precariously on top of the newly dubbed Hoke-A-Mania division. This is how bad of a Michigan fan I am, I had to Google what that was in reference to. Shame shame. After dropping an embarrassing opener to P Funk All Stars in WK1, Alvin has righted the ship with three good games and only a five point loss to 100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears to spoil the party. All this after suffering a catastrophic off-season that saw their keeper core decimated by injury. The good news is that Trent Richardson and his 3.13 YPC average is in a better offense, even as if his fantasy stock hasn't gone up much up yet.

New quarterback Tom Brady, acquired via a draft day trade, has only hit twenty points once this season, which is surprising. That, of course, could be due to that other Pogiboy, Danny Amendola, who has only played one game so far. Aside from Calvin Johnson, the receiving corps is a bit dicey. DeSean Jackson looked fantastic for the first two weeks before disappearing, and Jermichael Finley teased before getting injured again. I'm gonna state the obvious: Jermichael Finley equals NBA's Tyrus Thomas. With Michael Crabtree and Percy Harvin both with that shiny red "O" next to their names, there's no question Alvin loves his injury prone high upside guys -- just like with his SlamNation team. Rookie Eddie Lacy had a flash in WK1 before he too suffered an injury.

Actually, with so many disappointments, it's almost incredible that the Pogiboys are leading this division. And we haven't even talked about running back Lamar Miller, who is at 7.5 points per game, not exactly what Alvin expected after drafting him third overall. In fact, all those early 2013 draft picks -- including four first rounders -- resulted in Miller, Lacy, Jackson, Finley, Tyler Eifert, and Carson Palmer. Plus Tom Brady of course. Worth it?

Ann Arbor Bamfers (2-2)
The story heading into the season was who would hold the QB reins for Randy's team: Eli Manning or Colin Kaepernick? Turns out it doesn't really matter, both have been wildly erratic this season, and are only separated by one point per game. The Bamfers are mysteriously at 0.500 despite being outscored 228 to 333 PF/PA. Some of that disparity was caused by a 73-129 WK1 loss to Jedi Knights but mostly it's because in WK3 the Bamfers somehow magically only scored 25 points. For the whole week. Seriously, take a look.  In their other two outings, Randy's fighting heroes didn't pass the seventy points scored mark. Again, this team is at 0.500.

The good news: Frank Gore has been pretty good. Better news: Randy kept Fred Jackson, who is a top ten running back so far. That's actually better than great news because C.J. Spiller has been horrific. In what was supposed to be a huge follow up to his breakthrough season, Spiller has totally regressed and is being outpaced by Jackson. Tight end Owen Daniels is leading this team in receiving points, mainly on the strength of an eighteen point WK1. Aside from that there's not much else here. A monster WK2 from James Jones, absolutely nothing from Kenny Britt and Santana Moss, and now Nate Burleson lost for the season. We forsee a difficult road for the Bamfers to even match their five win total from last season unless one of the quarterbacks and Spiller start picking it up.

Hungry Hungry Ouroborous (1-3)
Collapsing down the stretch last season to the tune of three straight losses, Jon's team came out of the gates with another three loss streak to start 2013. One of those losses could have been salvaged by starting Mike Wallace in WK2 but complaining about what could have been is for wimps. In WK4, the Angry Angry Ouroborous put the smack down to the tune of 136 points, our high mark of the season, and finally got in the wins column after almost a year out of the limelight. Seriously, their last victory was WK10 last season, which was very likely November 2012. That's a loooong time to go in-between wins. Clearly, this is now a team on the rise! Okay, maybe not as the Ouroborous haven't eclipsed eighty points in any of their previous three games. Their decent Points For is inflated by one big week but otherwise this team is starving for points.

There is some talent on the team though. Matt Ryan has maintained his excellent QB status, and Victor Cruz momentarily sits atop the WR charts. With Eric Decker, Julian Edelman, and Mike Wallace also on board, there is an above average passing game. Especially with Antonio Gates deciding to rejuvenate himself this season through a steady diet of carne asada burritos. Jon's team even features two running backs who both average double digits: Darren Sproles and rookie Giovani Bernard. Both are erratic but their open field skills give the Ouroborous a wide open attack. Highly biases analysis says that this team should be better, but the on-field results speak otherwise. The Ouroborous are just eating themselves.

Team Cameltoe (1-3)
Over an extremely busy off-season, Felipe completely rebuilt his team, to much applause and acclaim. After posting just four wins last year, there was nowhere else to go but up. Unfortunately, they seem to be taking two steps back before any steps forward. To be fair, new acquisition Jordy Nelson has been better than hoped -- currently ranked #3 in WR points by average -- but Russell Wilson has been less than spectacular. To put it mildly. Will he eventually be worth the two RD1s and one RD2 Felipe gave up for him? Time will tell. Currently, Wilson is keeping pace with EJ Manuel, and arguably being outperformed by the rookie too. (Does Cameltoe regret not just keeping Jay Cutler?)

As for new running back Daryl Richardson, he's been awful, simply awful. The only worse things have been keepers David Wilson and Chris Ivory. Between the two of them, they've accrued twelve points total on the season -- Richardson has seventeen, for a 4.3 point average. To add insult to injury, the Bears D/ST that Cameltoe received in Trade ID#165 is now back on the Mandalorian Warriors, and outperforming the Buccaneers defense that Felipe has been rolling out. The only other bright spot for this team is Julio Jones, who has paired with Nelson to be a dominating duo. Even with this being a weak division, we find it hard to see Cameltoe picking up many wins this season, unless someone can donate a running back to the Cameltoe cause. Anyone, anyone?

East Conf Early Look: Lebowski Achievers

Last year, the Lebowski division was very respectable, and it had the eventual champion emerge from its depths. Right now it boasts one of the four 3-1 teams, but it's not who you think it is! Read on to find out who might upseat the mighty Mandalorians for division supremacy. Last year's peek into Lebowski Achievers at WK7.

Detroit Players (3-1)
Ariel had five wins all of last season so he must be ecstatic to be sitting atop the division, even if only temporarily. The Players started the season off strong but have slowly dipped from 90 to 80 to 74 to 50 points each successive week. Three wins is three wins but that's not a good trend. Half the starting lineup is on bye this upcoming week too, so that could be a loss. Enjoy the view from up there buddy, it could be a short stay.

As of WK4, the Players haven't touched their starting lineup yet. It's been Robert Griffin III, DeMarco Murray, A.J. Green, Mike Williams, Hakeem Nicks, and Kyle Rudolph all the way. In some cases that's good, i.e. DeMarco Murray who finds himself as a top seven RB. In some cases that has meant sticking with Nicks and Rudolph, who are both kind of floundering. It isn't like Ariel isn't trying to move them out of the starting lineup, it's just that he's got nobody else. Seriously, his bench is paper thin, with Jets WR Stephen Hill the only non-QB player averaging more than three points a game. The Players really need RG3 to find his groove again, and if he and A.J. can pick it up there's a chance for Ariel to capitalize on his fast start to continue into playoff contention. The division title though, is almost assuredly going to the looming juggernaut behind him...

Mandalorian Warriors (2-2)
The defending champs are shockingly only 0.500, despite leading the league in scoring and not playing an awful schedule so far. The Warriors first loss was by one point in WK1 -- to Italian Stallionz -- but overall there's nothing for Matt to worry about here. His team has scored 89+ points in each game and still features the greatest keeper core ever assembled. Hyperbole? I don't know, I haven't been in this league long enough. You tell me. While injuries to Rob Gronkowski, Roddy White, and Steven Jackson have sapped Matt's team of some strength, the Warriors clearly aren't hurting for scoring. Not with Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy leading the way!

Brandon Marshall is doing his best to drag the receiving corps along as he awaits the return of his talented buddies. And heck, Knowshon Moreno has emerged out of the Denver doghouse to pretty much do what Steven Jackson would have been expected to, which is score enough to be right outside the top ten RBs. Heck, Matt Prater is the best kicker around too, as if the Warriors needed more riches. I don't have much else to say here. The Warriors are the cream of the crop, even when injured, and it looks like Matt should start a side project, like maybe picking up a bench mob of all "Matt" players, starting with his recent acquisition, Matt Cassel.

WS Tartars (2-2)
Finally, a team that makes sense. When Jay's team scores in the 50s, they lose. When they score near the 80s, they win. Woohoo, paragraph done! Last year produced only four wins for Tartars but with this awesome new system in place, and a soft schedule, it looks like Jay can rest easy and just let his team cruise control to 0.500, alternating 50s and 80s. It would be a stretch to call this team "good," as they don't seem to have a single bright spot on the roster. Its poor keeper score reflected this.

I mean, the franchise cornerstone, Maurice Jones-Drew, has put up nineteen total points this season. And he's been healthy! The other RB, Jonathan Stewart, has been down for the count all season and he's not likely to come in to save anyone's job anytime soon. There's also a lot of confusion at the top as there are four quarterbacks on the roster. Andy Dalton got three okay starts before Alex Smith stepped in to toss three touchdowns last week. He could be the new go-to guy. Behind them are Ben Roethlisberger and Josh Freeman, the latter who should have been dropped weeks ago.

We are glad to see receiver Torrey Smith show some consistency this year -- he leads this team in scoring -- and Stevie Johnson has been good too, along with a possible excellent waiver wire pickup Jerome Simpson. After that it's pretty bare for the Tartars, unless you count hoping for a LeSean McCoy injury to unleash Bryce Brown stuff Tartars fans dream of. We have absolutely no idea where this team is headed, as only a single point separates their PF/PA counts. I'm actually hoping that Jay somehow pilots his team to the top of the division, unseating Mandalorian Warriors and knocking them out of wild card contention to boot. Cross your fingers!

Dunder Mifflin Paper Company (1-3)
If you thought Ann Arbor Bamfers' PF/PA disparity was bad, get a load of DM Paper Company's 279-387. They didn't have a record breaking low score but after a normally scored WK1 win, Mike's team faced 99, 107, and 108 point scoring opponents. Ouch. Nobody can win consistently versus that type of schedule. The matchups get a lot easier the next couple of weeks though, so there's a chance for the Paperboys to right the ship. They'll have to work overtime to match their eight wins from last year though. Most of the problem stems from the stalled backfield of Arian Foster and Chris Johnson. Foster is at 12.5 points per game, good for top ten RB status, but he needs to be top three for this team to chug along. As for Johnson, he hasn't hit double digits or the end zone yet. Unfortunately, Jacquizz Rodgers and Foster handcuff Ben Tate aren't exactly ready to slide into full featured roles either.

The receiving game is in trouble too. Dwayne Bowe is having a slow start, Miles Austin's hamstring is acting up (again), Malcom Floyd just got shut down for the season, and tight end Vernon Davis has been very bad after a promising WK1. Nobody-knows-who-he-is Brian Hartline is contributing more than Bowe and Austin this season. Maybe it's time to play youngster Alshon Jeffery? With nobody to pass to, Tony Romo really needs his running backs to step up. Can Michael Scott come in to save the day? Heck, someone call Dwight.