Wednesday, September 26, 2012

The Case for PPR


Let's talk about PPR.  If you don't know what PPR stands for, get out!  I'm an advocate of PPR because it gives receivers a bump in value.  Why bump WRs in value you say?  Aren't they already 8 of the top 20 players on the combined RB/WR/TE charts?  And a very nicely distributed 14 out of the top 30 if you go even further?  All of these thing are true.

However, out of the top fifteen slots, only three are WRs. This isn't a huge problem because RBs have traditionally been more important than WRs but the traditional fantasy scoring system severely undervalues the contributions of the modern day wideout. Below are some reasons to go PPR.

1) Separation between average and franchise caliber receivers
My argument pro-PPR is that the difference between an average wide receiver and a franchise level one is not very large.  There are currently seventeen WRs who average over ten points per game.  At the bottom are names like Kevin Ogletree and Nate Washington, who both average exactly 10.0 points per game.  At the top of the charts is AJ Green and Calvin Johnson, who both average 14.0+ points per game.  That is not a very wide gap.  Four points is a fumble and an interception.
Let's take a closer look:
  • #1 AJ Green (14.3 pts) - 21 receptions
  • #2 Calvin Johnson (14.0 pts) - 24 receptions
  • #16 Kevin Ogletree (10.0 pts) - 14 receptions
  • #17 Nate Washington (10.0 pts) - 7 receptions
The main difference between a top receiver and a flash in the pan receiver is usage.  Green and Johnson will consistently be targeted 12+ times a game and catch about 8 of those. Ogletree had one eight reception game in WK1 and then only six receptions in the two games following. Nate Washington is a deep threat so he catches about two balls a game -- with greater yardage averages -- but his point total is also buoyed by two TDs this season.

Low to middling receivers won't have the ball thrown to them as often as the better ones, why ignore that fact?

2) Make WR/TE better than Ks
Currently, there are eleven kickers that average over ten points a game.  That means, most weeks, my kicker will have more impact on my team's success than my number one wide -- assuming each of our sixteen teams had an even distribution of double digit receivers.  I love Shayne Graham (#11, 10.0 pts) but I don't want him to be more valued than Victor Cruz (10.7 per game).

Sure, kickers are by nature much more consistent with their scoring and there's less of a spread between them, but currently my kicker, Justin Tucker (39 total), has contributed almost as many points to my bottom line as Mike Wallace (40 total).  If we add in Wallace's 17 receptions, that would help elevate him above Tucker quite a bit. Wallace didn't hold out this pre-season because he was worth a kicker!
Average double digits per game by position:
  • 20 RBs: #1 Arian Foster (18.3 pts), #10 Trent Richardson (12.7), #20 Doug Martin (10.0)
  • 17 WRs: #1 AJ Green (14.3 pts), #8 Reggy Wayne (11.3), #17 Nate Washington (10.0)
  • 7 TEs: Vernon Davis (13.3 pts), Tony Gonzalez, Martellus Bennett, Heath Miller, Jimmy Graham, Kyle Rudolph, Dennis Pitta.
  • 11 Ks: With the tops being Jason Hanson at 15.0 per and four more at 13.0+ per.
  • 4 DEFs: Bears (15.0 pts), Cardinals, Falcons, Seahawks
Using PPR would push RB/WR/TE to more points, while lessening the impact of K and DEF.  Which is why we play the game right?  Unless you think just love rooting for your Bears or Cardinals defenses.

3) Added consistency for WR/TE
Even if your receiver gets only 40 yards per game, those six balls he caught will help level him out.  Right now, receivers are boom and bust, based purely on yardage, since there is no other metric to judge them on.  RBs tend to get both rushing and receiving yardage, while most WRs only get the latter.  I want the hard work my player put into running a route to be reflected in his fantasy game!

Some have argued that carries then could be a metric, but let's be honest, receiving a carry requires no effort. At least a reception someone is throwing and catch a ball.

4) More Strategy
PPR would add another dimension to selecting receivers, as there are now different types.  Do you take the possession receiver who catches a lot of balls for low yardage or the deep threat who catches a few balls but makes the most of each opportunity?  At the end of the day you want whichever one scores more, of course, but would you prefer a Larry Fitzgerald versus Randy Moss?  Of course, it's possible to have the best of both worlds, aka Jerry Rice.

5) RBs would also benefit
Running backs who catch are a valuable part of the game and nowadays, some of them are brought into the game solely to catch out of the backfield -- shout out to Ronnie Harmon.  PPR would not only float the WR/TE boats but also RBs as well, bringing them closer in line to QBs and raising everyone above the dreaded Ks and DEFs.

Notes:
You could argue that it's only WK3, and these numbers are skewed.  Sure, but I wanted to point this out now so we can take a look at the potential impact of PPR over the course of this season.  I'm confident that the spreads won't change much, even if the names do.

My personal preference is actually half point PPR, which is what we have been doing in my other keeper league for 10+ years.

Yes, using PPR -- or even half a point PPR -- breaks with tradition, but since the current fantasy rules were created twenty plus years ago, the game has evolved and I think receptions is one of those things that should be added to any scoring system.

Saturday, September 22, 2012

Shark Tank

In a shocking announcement, special teams, kicking, and sometime dance coach of the Hungry Hungry Ouroboros, Kelvin, defected to a rival team, moving up to assistant general manager in the process.  Even while we are piecing together the off-field transaction, the league is atwitter over what kinds of promises Eric made to ensnare Kelvin and steal him after just two weeks at his old job.

At the time of this writing, Kelvin had coached K Justin Tucker to first among kickers and the Jets defense to ninth overall.  What will his first move with the Human Amoebas be?  We're excited to find out. Looking over Kelvin's past drafts, it's clear he has a predilection for tight ends. We're looking for a big move there as he integrates himself into Amoebas' management.

Asked for commentary, GM Eric of the Amoebas declined to say anything while Kelvin was happy to step up to the mic.  "Here's what happened. He saw my potential and asked me if I wanted to co-own with him. Game recognize game." Currently, Kelvin's team (El Nino's) is top of the charts in his other yearly fourteen team league, 2-0 with the highest points scored.


Jon, of the slighted Hungry Hungry Ouroboros, also released a statement. Well, more of a personal warning, sent to Eric via this blog post.  "He [Kelvin] can't be trusted.  He'll stab you right in the back to rise higher in this league.  I fear for you [Eric], that's it. I'm not even sad that Kelvin left me, I'm just warning Human Amoebas that this man is known to have his sights set higher than just a co-GM job.  He wants his own franchise and he might do a strategic takeover to get one!"

Rumors are that Kelvin has already made powerful enemies with his (weak) trash talk. He's also laid down the gauntlet that he'll take anyone in basketball and is calling for a Classic. Reports also indicate that Kelvin plays dirty and has recently taken out one of the organizers of a local San Diego weekend game. Beware fellow owners, beware.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

2-0 and 0-2

All three of our 2-0 teams started 2-0 last season too, which is kind of interesting. As for our 0-2 teams, they are less hapless than they look. Well, for the most part. In the NFL, it's hard to recover from 0-2 but in fantasy, that's just a minor stumble. We bet one of the 0-2 teams will make the playoffs while one of the 2-0 teams will fade into obscurity by WK13. Care to take bets on which?

On top of the world at 2-0
100 Acre Wood Pooh Bears PF: 172 PA: 148
Breathing a sigh of relief after a late MNF charge from Matt Ryan, the Pooh Bears are the best team in the league. It's not hard to see why as all of their pre-season moves have paid off. Cam Newton is averaging 18.5 points, Ray Rice and Jimmy Graham are performing as expected, and young guys like Doug Martin and Brandon LaFell are stepping up. The Bears are the only team with five guys who put up double digits in each of the first two weeks. No wonder they're the leaders this young season.

Mandalorian Warriors PF: 163 PA: 152
Escaping with a 68-67 victory in WK2, the Warriors are undefeated, leaning heavily on new acquisition Drew Brees, LeSean McCoy, and Rob Gronkowski. Jordy Nelson and Steven Jackson aren't pulling their weight yet, but they could soon come around. Matt will need the rest of his team to step up if he's going to continue his winning ways. Also, is Brandon Marshall the 17 point beast from WK1 or the 2 point mouse from WK2? Lots of questions for a team that's 2-0...

Italian Stallionz PF: 160 PA: 123
Porta's been here before, starting off 2-0 last season before tumbling to 5-8 during his inaugural season. This time he's got six players averaging double digits -- not including a K or DEF -- led by Tom Brady, Demaryius Thomas, and Stevan Ridley. Plus old men Reggie Wayne and Tony Gonzalez look revitalized. Of course, one of the Stallionz's wins was a WK2 70-41 beatdown of Jedi Knights, but a win is a win. With Brady not even close to hitting his stride, we see some upside here.

Swirling in the stink at 0-2
P Funk All Stars PF: 87 PA: 182
Paolo has three guys averaging 14 points or above. The problem is they all play one position: quarterback. QBs Joe Flacco, Alex Smith, and Sam Bradford have been putting up the points but two of them sit every week -- so far Flacco has been starting. The only other players to hit double digits so far have been Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas, both in WK2 (Thomas' was from the bench). Starting receiver Brian Quick has one target and zero receptions so far this season. Ouch. Someone tell Paolo 43.5 points per game is unacceptable!

Another Bad Creation PF: 150 PA: 168
The Ba-Donka-Donk Division has two of the winless teams, so at least Oliver's squad isn't sitting in last. While Oliver came awful close to beating Mandalorian Warriors this past weekend, his bench RBs all outplayed Darren McFadden, costing him a win. (Reggie Bush!!!) To be fair, ABC has a few guys averaging double digits and his wide receivers -- Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Andrew Hawkins -- are looking like they'll take turns putting up points. Aaron Rodgers needs to put up more than 16 points a game for this team to pull themselves back up though.

Ann Arbor Bamfers PF: 155 PA: 189
It's rare that an injury can positively change the fortunes of a team so much. In Randy's case, he's delighted Fred Jackson went down in WK1, which opened the door for CJ Spiller. While Spiller has only contributed in WK2 for the Bamfers, he could prove to be this year's breakout back. With Eli Manning, a still effective Frank Gore, and even BenJarvus Green-Ellis grabbing some points, the Bamfers are a winless team on the way up. They lost in WK1 due to Jackson's injury and got nailed with 121 points from Detroit Players in WK2. We're banking on a WK3 trip to the win column.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Who can go on IR?


Important information relevant to everyone. Who can we put on IR? The commissioner revealed to me that the IR slot can only be used for players that CBS has designated as injured. Alvin even kindly provided his own example up above, where WR Vincent Brown has a nifty "IR" symbol next to him. This designation allows him to sit on the IR for awhile, until he must then be taken off. Please keep an eye on other people's IR designations, as that is the first place people try to cheat. So I've heard.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Hindsight: Week One

Whew, that was some close games this week right? I mean, so I hear. I don't have a television so I haven't been able to watch any football yet. I know, it's sad. I am even thinking of getting NFL Replay just to get to the games. It's pathetic but true. The good news is that I know everything that happened as I closely monitor Twitter, ESPN, and podcasts. So here we go, a brief look at WK1 and some of the ultra-close games that went down to the wire.

68-67, Rhythm Drive defeat Ann Arbor Bamfers
With his high flying wide receivers basically falling flat on their faces, Reno was worried heading into MNF. Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings, and Santana Moss combined to score only one more point than the Bamfer's Anquan Boldin. With Matt Forte and Frank Gore playing to a standstill, Reno needed Rivers to come up with a halfway decent game.

Luckily, Rivers did just that with 13 points off of 231 passing yards and one passing TD, giving Rhythm Drive the win! For the Bamfers, losing Fred Jackson doomed them to this loss, but the good news is they have CJ Spiller waiting to step in. "Handcuff your running back" should be right up there with "don't text while driving" and "click it or ticket" on the list of safety rules everyone should follow. Thanks for reminding us Randy.

89-82, Italian Stallionz defeat Dunder Mifflin Paper Company
The retroactive game of the week featured double digit performances by every player save three, and an incredible loss fueled by a negative defensive effort. Porta's Stallionz got excellent performances from Tom Brady and Demaryius Thomas, 17 pts each, and even got a nifty 136 receiving yards from Reggie Wayne. Who needs Peyton when you've got Luck?

Mike's Paper Company wasn't going to go down without their own huge performances though, as Tony Romo (23 pts), Arian Foster (19 pts), and kicker Matt Bryant (17 pts) made for an interesting counterpunch. Of course, Bills defense threw up a ghastly -8 so Mike needed Malcolm Floyd to come up big on MNF. Mr. Floyd had a respectable 66 yards with a TD but that wasn't nearly enough to make up the gap. In the end, Porta and Brady marched away with a fantastic first week win.

Tidbits:
  • High scorer Team Cameltoe had exactly 100 points. Someone mentioned on GroupMe that this was the first week they could recall with only one team going over the century mark. Cameltoe did it behind impressive days by Jay Cutler, Julio Jones, and Ravens defense. Oh and a spicy -2 from starting running back David Wilson.
  • That Alfred Morris trade for Jedi Knights is looking pretty good now right? A 2020 3rd round pick for a young running back that received 28 carries and scored 2 TDs on his first start? Bet Jedi Knights can't wait for WK2 to get him off their bench.
  • WR Kevin Ogletree is the week's #3 scorer behind Matt Ryan and Robert Griffin III. He had 23 points on 114 yards and 2 TDs. The next free agent who had a breakout is TE Dennis Pitta, who had 13 points and was #43 on the WK1 scoring chart. Any bets on if Ogletree is more than just a one week wonder?
  • Nate Kaeding dropped in five field goals and an extra point, trying to single handedly bring Human Amoebas back on MNF against Mandalorian Warriors. Kaeding came up just three field goals short. Good try though. If the Amoebas had won, the entire The Wood Division would have started off undefeated. Way to let your division down Eric.
  • P Funk All Stars fell flat on their face in WK1, giving new owner Jon an easy 97-41 victory. Thank you for your kindness Paolo, please come join our GroupMe as you are the only one not there yet. "Booted for inactivity..."
  • Ten defenses and sixteen kickers scored in double digits, compared to twenty RBs, twenty eight WRs, and eleven TEs. I feel like I'm going to be talking about DEF and K for high scorers a lot. Billy Cundiff for MVP!